5 pillars of wisdom for Seeing Machines

I noted the latest RNS from Seeing Machines re. its new hi falutin ‘3 pillarsā€™ strategyā€¦.if youā€™re going to crib a marketing strategy steal from the best; Islam and/or TE Lawrence. Well done.

Strip away the technobabble and hyperbole and it appears that Seeing Machines is providing would beĀ customers with maximum flexibility as to how they choose to use its class-leading technology at a great price, with the option to provide over the air updates. Of course, I am not well versed in the world of BS bingo so Iā€™ve avoided any mention of ā€˜deep edgeā€™.

Thatā€™s all very fine and I look forward to numerous licence deals that remove any lingering possibility of a fundraise and share consolidation. Imminently.

5 pillars

I donā€™t doubt the technology, just managementā€™s resolve to deliver for private investors. Iā€™d therefore like Seeing Machines to build these 5 pillars of wisdom into its actions:

  1. Demonstrate that management are so convinced of its future success that they use their own cash to buy meaningful numbers of shares. Especially the CEO.
  2. Greater transparency re. RFQs, BDMS, Aviation, strategy for trucks and and yes, even trains. Silence just wonā€™t do.
  3. A reduction in BS bingo and technobabble in comms: terms like ā€˜low integration pathwayā€™ etc, etc. Explain what you mean in plain English. Australians are renowned for their plain speaking so letā€™s have more of it. My neural processing unit will be better able to read your RNSs if you do that.
  4. Put to bed the idea that a fundraise may be needed. Stifel in its initiation note on 21st July 2020 indicated one would be needed, stating: ā€œKey risks to our thesis include the need to raise funds; order push outs; regulatory changes; competition; and market disruption.ā€ (Incidentally, why isnā€™t this note up on the Seeing Machines website for all PIs to read?)
  5. An online webinar for the results is needed. One where investors can post questions online in real time. React did this and if a tiny company like that can do it there is no excuse for SEE not doing likewise.

I should add that I still believe this technology is great and will save many, many lives. Good luck to all those at the company. Congrats on the Mercedes S launch.Ā 

Cenkos note

For those seelievers out there, the Cenkos (house broker) note published today provided a very positive take on the latest developments, with analyst Marc Bunce commenting: “We see the launch of Occula (TM!) as an exciting development for the company with this step change in the Seeing Machines technology expected to further the gap from its peers in benchmark testing. It is the result of significant work under the radar and the announcement demonstrates confidence in the company that it has world class technology not just in DMS but also human tracking and detection. With the added offer to license for virtually any embedded or ASIC application a Tier 2, Tier 1 or OEM can think of, Seeing Machines has brought its top tier performance into easy access and affordability for all vehicles (and locations in vehicles) as well as other applications. This will undoubtedly increase its potential market share in automotive but will also no doubt pique the interest of other technology developers and integrators. Seeing Machines is therefore opening back up from a transportation focussed technology company to a human-machine interface technology supplier which could deliver further significant value to investors which is not reflected in the current share price.”

ThatĀ almost reads like a ‘come and get me’ plea. There may be takers once a few more contracts are signed.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

SEE: when will you deliver for investors?

Iā€™ve tried being subtle, not that it suits me. Still the question now needs to be asked, when will Seeing Machines start delivering, instead of taking from its investors?

Iā€™m concerned that the management of Seeing Machines has long forgotten that it runs the company not for itself but for its investors. This was brought home to me by a quick look at the latest Annual Report.

A case in point is the huge payment that Ex-CEO Ken Kroeger received last year: A$654K (Ā£347K), revealed on page 47. Thatā€™s great pay considering the share price plummeted 75%. Admittedly, AIM CEOs are well known for paying themselves well regardless of performance, but (as a shareholder) I find this instance especially outrageous.

Nor does it end there, as staff recently received huge share bonuses for work over the same period. Clearly, management arenā€™t sharing the pain with us long-term investors.

Iā€™d hoped that new CEO Paul McGlone would chart a new path but I donā€™t see it yet. Here areĀ 3Ā issues I personally have:

  • There still seems to be no discernible PR strategy in place. For example, SEE has a fancy US PR firm that donā€™t seem able to generate mass coverage for what is an easy sell to editors; car tech that saves lives. As a case in point, when I tried to get some simple answers to some obvious questions about their RNS on Alaska Airlines recently they failed to deliver. Am I being singled out for special treatment or are all journalists treated so poorly?
  • Lack of transparency for shares awards to the CEO; why have no targets been set and communicated via RNS? This is how SEE do it. This is how another AIM company, Parity did it. Take a look at page 17 ofĀ Seeing Machines’ annual report to learn about a remuneration policy with no policy.
  • Lack of disclosure re. relationships with partners. For example, what is going on with Mix Telematics and why arenā€™t we being told? Itā€™s been years since a contract was signed and we still have yet to see it bear any fruit. Hiding behind NDAs just looks weak.

I hope next week at the Capital Markets Day the management under new CEO Paul McGlone will adjust course and address longstanding investor concerns about the lack of transparency and poor news flow. After all, investing should work for the many, not the few.

This isn’t meant to knock the staff of Seeing Machines or its technology. I have the highest respect for the brilliant technology coming out of this company and the dedication of the majority of its staff to delivering life-saving technology to the masses. I just want more transparency and better execution from management.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Honey, I shrunk the revenues

For me, the most interesting development arising from Seeing Machines’ results last week was house broker Cenkos lowering its share price target from 19p to 15p.

That arguably could provide ā€˜independentā€™ justification of Seeing Machines valueĀ if a low-ball bid comes in. Understand, I donā€™t consider Cenkos to be independent myself but in many takeovers the house broker target price is used to support a bid.

I hope Iā€™m wrong but the pattern of communications from Seeing Machines over the course of many months, together with the slow mo correction of problems with fleet looks like carelessness at best.

Smoke and mirrors

On the face of it, the new price target from house broker Cenkos is predicated largely on the basis of lower fleet revenues in the 2019 financial year, bringing down overall revenues and gross profit for Seeing Machines.

So how credible is that fleet revenue estimate?

Cenkos has estimated fleet revenues for 2019 will be only A$14.1m vs. the figure of A$49.1m, which it had forecast as recently as August 3rd.

However, Iā€™m having difficulty working out how such a low figure is even possible given the number of units Fleet has out in the field.

By my calculations in this financial year (2019) Fleet should have recurring revenues from the existing 10,000 fleet units installed up to the end of the 2018 financial year (circa A$17m) plus revenues from the 5,500 that were shipped at the start of 2019 financial year plus a further 4,000 that Cenkos state will be installed by the end of the 2019 financial year.

Seeing Machines itself stated in the RNS announcing its full year results this week: ā€œTotal cumulative contracted Fleet (Guardian) revenue of A$82 million as at 30 June 2018. A$50 million revenue yet to be recognised over a three-year period.ā€

[When I divide $50m by 3 I get Ā£16.6m – what do you get Mr Accountant?]

Well I contacted Seeing Machines via email and this was their reply:

  • “The Cenkos analyst provides his independent view on the Company.

Ā 

  • Guardian revenue is recognised as follows:
    • Total connected Guardian units is 10,000.
    • TCV is based on total cumulative contract value since Guardian was launched.
    • Contract sizes vary.
    • Revenue is recognised firstly when hardware sales are recognised and secondly, once the unit is connected into the vehicle, monthly recurring revenue is generated.
    • Each fleet varies in contract size and it takes varying amounts of time to connect each vehicle in a fleet to Guardian.

Ā 

  • TCV was published as A$82 million. A$50 million of that revenue will be recognised over 3 years ā€“ ie by end of FY2021.”

Diversion

Of course, while weā€™re all pondering about fleet revenues are we possibly missing something? Yes: Seeing Machines is going to be acquired because itā€™s the leading global DMS and BdMS supplier.

Any potential acquirer probably wants Fleet ā€˜smoothly transitionedā€™ (as Cenkos put it in a note on19th September) to a licence model. The beauty of the strategy, the sheer genius, is that it has made Seeing Machines more attractive as a target by both moving the business on and conveniently reducing its short term value.

A potential bidder, letā€™s call it company ā€˜Bā€™ for now, can either take advantage of the reduction in SEEā€™s price while the sale is on or SEE will go it alone and use the extra engineering resource from fleet to help service the multiple auto OEM contracts that are on the way.

And make no mistake those contracts will have to be announced soon. FCA and Toyota are huge wins that finally cement the industry view that Seeing Machines is the Mobileye of DMS.

The window for a cheap sale will have run out within a few months.

Can you hear that clock ticking?

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Seeing Machines at a crossroads

Regular readers of this blog will know Iā€™m very keen on Seeing Machines. However, its would-be spin-off, Fovio has been delayed for a few months now (it was intended to spin it off by July 1, 2016) and the costs are still being borne by the main business. Therefore, while Monday’sĀ results show great progress in many areas I wanted to concentrate on the likelihood of its being ā€˜forcedā€™ to raise cash in the very near future.

From my discussions with management it appears that the cash position is now A$11m. The present cash holding will be boosted by an in principle agreement with CAT to bring forward Ā US$7M by Christmas (for although the revenue was recognised in the 2016 accounts, the actual cash is spread out). In addition, there should be around A$4-$5m coming in from fleet sales to assist working capital.

Even if SEE were to carry the full cost of auto, which is estimated by the Lorne Daniel, analyst at house broker finnCap as A$14m, overall net spend will be A$25m in FY 2017. This means that although finance would be tight by next June the company isnā€™t compelled to fundraise immediately.Ā 

According to SEEā€™s interim CFO, James Palmer: ā€œThe plan is still to spin off Fovio by Christmas. However, we can comfortably carry Fovio until June 30, 2017, which would give us ample time to go to a plan B if we need to. That is if plan A wasnā€™t working in the best interests of the shareholders and we had to look at an alternative structure.ā€

Chief Executive Ken Kroeger stressed: ā€œThe only thing that would change that is if we decided that a spin-out isnā€™t the best thing for current shareholders. We have invested another A$4m into automotive since year end and weā€™re not necessarily going to get more equity for that. In parallel to that, that $4m has delivered a whole lot of outcomes that we might not want to give away to somebody else and we are out there pursuing business that we could win between now and Christmas that would increase the value of the company, and which we might not want to give away at the current valuation.ā€

ā€œOur view is that the delay, while consuming cash, is increasing the value of our business and unless that is properly recognised in the spin out, we have the ability to reshape that if we choose to,ā€ added Kroeger.

Certainly, SEE seems keen to let potential investors know that it isnā€™t desperate for cash and its trump card is that the auto industry is desperate for its technology. Indeed, among auto OEMS, I understand that itā€™s only the Koreans that are not using its DMS technology. All the rest they are doing something with.

Fleet

Fleet is very important as aside from CAT it is the only part of the business currently generating revenues. In the year, ended 30 June 2016 it sold 1,666 units and already in the first quarter of its 2017 financial year it has managed to ramp up sales by approximately 3000 units, with a cumulative total of now 6,000 units sold.

Moreover, its pipeline of assessments continues to grow. At the end of June it had 34 on the go but when I sat down with Chief Operating Officer Paul Angelatos this week he joked: ā€œWeā€™ve not been sitting on our hands since the year end and in fleet we now have 45 assessments underway.ā€Ā The total number of units this potentially represents is roughly 160,000.Ā 

In addition, part of the strategy is to work with telematics providers in order to get sales in very large volumes as he explained:Ā 

ā€œMost of the large fleets we are working with already have a telematics solution installed, (tracking the vehicle, tracking driver behaviour in terms of harsh braking, cornering, acceleration,Ā etc., with GPS and an ability to transmit data)ā€¦Our product development is now focused on being able to integrate with the existing technology, stripping further cost out of our product, reducing the complexity of installation but more importantly allowing us to access existing customer bases with these partners.ā€

SEE now has memorandums of understanding (MOU) with 3 telematics providers and is having preliminary discussions with a fourth. As Angelatos commented: ā€œThe strategic telematics partners that we are now talking to effectively give us access to an installed base of over 2m vehicles.ā€

ā€œWe should be able to return some revenue from these strategic partnerships this financial year. It wonā€™t be significant but it does set us up for FY18, where we have the new product, weā€™ve proven the integration, weā€™ve proven that our technology works together, so weā€™ll be able then to access that volume market.ā€

In this financial year (2017), fleet revenues will be derived largely from direct sales and distributors.

ā€œTypically our model now is selling as a service, so we are looking at a bundled subscription fee per vehicle each month which is in competitive with other Mobile Resource Management (MRM) solutions. This provides a customer with a hardware solution and the full suite of analytics and monitoring of their fleet,ā€ addedĀ Angelatos.

ā€œWe have expectations of a certain number of units this financial year and next financial year it is an exponential increase based on the fact that we are going to be able to access some existing installed base with those partners plus new sales, ā€ he concluded.

Conclusion

It appears to me that that there is a possibility that if SEE doesnā€™t get the deal it wants for the auto spin-off very soon, one option could be to fund this division itself with a smallish capital raise in order to retain more value and control.

While this might appear fanciful, if revenues from Fleet continue to increase over the next few months, the amount to be raised for auto neednā€™t be hugely dilutive to existing shareholders.Ā 

There certainly wouldnā€™t be any shortage of Silicon Valley VC capital willing to invest in SEE itself, not to mention mutual funds and private investors.

Moreover the upside it would be capturing and retaining for investors might well outweigh the short term effect of any dilution. Indeed, if a fund or company bought in at a premium that would be a very bullish sign.

What I would hate to see would be a dilutive fundraise followed by a share consolidation that wipes out long term private investors such as myself. Yet, I get no indication such a move is on the cards.

Certainly, concerns over cashflow have been holding it back for a good while now and it makes strategic sense to keep Fovio in-house, in my opinion.

An eventual flotation of the whole company on Nasdaq could then set it up for a meteoric rise. For example, just look at the mouth watering (US$9.2bn) valuation of Mobileye and ask yourself where SEE is likely to be a year from now.

This last thought is pure speculation on my part and there are a lot of hurdles to be surmounted before then. Still, whichever plan SEE chooses toĀ  follow it is very much undervalued at its current share price.

As always, Iā€™d advise that investors do their own research and not rely on the thoughts of others.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Seeing Machines develops hardware chip

Seeing Machinesā€™ announcement today that it has launched its first generation ‘Fovio’ embedded hardware chip has sent the share price flying. The reason being it appears strengthen its technical leadership in transport tech for fatigue and distraction monitoring while also broadening its reach, towards a diverse range of Artificial Intelligence and ā€˜Internet of Thingsā€™ applications.

Lorne Daniel, analyst at house broker FinnCap, commented: ā€œThe latter is new, and hints at an even broader market than previously supposed. Current contracted OEM vehicle deliveries (assumed to mean GM 2017 CT6 Cadillac with SuperCruise) are on track to launch in 2017 as software; however, the FOVIO chips are likely to be used in the second generation rollout to the entire GM range as agreed in the follow-on OEM contract. Embedding the software in a chip reduces the cost and time to market for OEMs and their tier-1 suppliers, facilitating mass market rollout since driver distraction is becoming a critical issue for the industry.ā€

There has been no update on its automotive spin-out, although technical progress clearly continues. Ken Kroeger, chief executive officer of Seeing Machines, commented in the RNS: ā€œI am delighted to announce the introduction of our FOVIO DMS Chip which, as a World first, further cements Seeing Machinesā€™ position as global leader in the Driver Monitoring industry. The FOVIO Chip will greatly reduce the cost of DMS deployment, helping to accelerate not just our growth but mass market uptake of DMS technology in general. This product will become the key offering of FOVIO, our new stand-alone automotive business that is currently being structured and staffed.ā€Ā 

One assumes that any hard negotiations taking place with potential investors in the auto spin-off should be made easier by this announcement. Certainly, it can only make SEE a more attractive target for any cash-rich company wishing to dominate this space.

With all the talk about Apple buying McLaren recently, one wonders if this company is on its radar? Certainly, Seeā€™s market cap is too small given its leadership in the DMS space.

Q&A with Ken Kroeger

Below is a brief Q&A that Ken Kroeger, chief executive officer of Seeing Machines replied to late today (Australian time). Unlike a robot he still has to sleep – still, I am sure SEE are working on that.

1) Why was the news announced now, 2 weeks before the results? Is it to strengthen the hand of SEE in negotiations with the spin-off partners for Fovio and telemetric partners re. Guardian?

We demonstrated the chip to the first tier-1 this week and our Nomad felt that the market should be informed at the same time considering the quantum of the investment that has been made in the design, development and first runs of samples, which is now in the millions of dollars as it’s been two years of work from a sizeable team.

Ā Ā Ā 

2) How does this news affect the auto spin-off? Iā€™d assumed that a chip manufacturer/designer such as Intel or Arm might be a possible investor – does it make that more or less likely now?

The chip has been in development for two years. The semiconductor companies are all interested in our business and would all like us to migrate to their silicon in order to drive sales of their offering. We have a current silicon strategy working with an unnamed major partner that delivers not only the required hardware performance, but also the margins that are essential to the long term success of the auto business. The technical team has been built specifically around this particular silicon technology so a change would require additional investment.

3) How would you describe the significance of this move?

It’s an amazing step when you think about the fact that until two years ago everything we had ever sold ran on a very expensive computer and that everything ran on the Windows platform. Here we are today, running higher performing software on a device that we can sell for a tenth of the cost of that older processor and still have healthy margins in the business.

Ā Ā Ā 

Ā 4) Do you have any information on how much cheaper it will make the cost of DMS deployment?

We can say that if it was available for the first generation OEM automotive product, it would deliver a greater than 15% saving to the end price of the system. A significant number when you’re buying things such as millions of cars.

My Conclusion

As itā€™s well known that the growing ambitions of this company require more funding Iā€™m very keen to hear more about how this development plays into Seeing Machinesā€™ overall strategy.

Its results presentation will be on October 3rd, which should be a very interesting day.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Ā Ā Ā 

Seeing Machines confirms auto spin-off by end of June

In an exclusive interview today,Ā  Seeing Machinesā€™ CEO Ken Kroeger confirmed to me that theĀ innovative developer of eye-tracking technology is on-track for the launch of an spin-off company by the end of June this year, raising between US$60-100m

ā€œWeā€™re trying to close the finance by mid-June. Weā€™re expecting it may slip a little bit but weā€™re pretty far advanced and have made an offer to the CEO; weā€™re starting to structure an org chart and plan what the business looks like as it moves beyond this organisation.ā€

The new entity will employ around 70 people (some part-time), there are likely to be a total of 5 board members including the CEO, with one representative from Seeing Machines on the board.

Kroeger couldnā€™t reveal who the cornerstone investor is nor the exact percentage stake that Seeing Machines would hold, saying in todayā€™s announcement only that it would retain a ā€œsignificant equity stakeā€ in the new company.

From my own research, Iā€™d guess that the cornerstone investor,Ā described as a ā€œUS-based investment firm with extensive experience in automotive technologiesā€ in todayā€™s announcement, is likely to be GM Ventures. As to the other investors, Iā€™m less sure.

Still, Ken Kroeger confirmed that all will be revealed quite soon:Ā ā€œWithin the next 4-6 weeks we should be able to start telling people who these organisations are, how much we own, how much we will own.ā€

There are two be 2 rounds of investment plus an employee share option scheme and heā€™s been looking at what the market cap table will look like through those different phases. The initial round of investment will be followed by one further investment 2 years down the line.

ā€œI think weā€™ve shaped the investment strategy to put us in front of the sorts of organisations we would want as partners and that there isĀ  an expectation that they have the same objectives. So weā€™ve been looking for people that are strategically aligned in order to make sure that this goes to plan,ā€ he added.

Kroeger also confirmed that a lot of the recent selling has been by an Australian Superannuation fund (Dixons Advisory), an original investor inĀ Seeing Machinesā€™ IPO that until recently held an 8% stake.Ā Apparently, holders had been advised to sell as the shares were converting from paper to electronic versions.

It certainly seems like an odd time to be selling out of a company making great strides in one of the hottest sectors in automotive.

As this is overhang is cleared, good news flow should propel Seeing Machinesā€™ share price much higher over the next few months.

Incidentally, Kroeger revealed that the company, anxious to keep investors better informed, will also be launching a new investor-focused website in around 7 weeks.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Polar Capital Technology Trust holds SEE

The Polar Capital Technology Trust has a big cap biasĀ and has125 holdings.Ā ItĀ has delivered Net Asset Value returns of 234.84% over the past 10 years, with share price growth of 214.19%

Fund Manager Ben Rogoff has 125 holdings in the Ā£788m fund, the top 5 holdings in the Ā£788m fund are: Alphabet (9.4%), Apple (7.3%), Microsoft (6.5%), Facebook (5.4%) and Amazon (2.9%).

However, 7.5% of the fund is invested in small caps, stocks below $1bn. Indeed, he also holds at least one microcap; AIM-listed Seeing Machines, which constitutes 0.1% of his fund. He told me: ā€œWe donā€™t normally invest in companies at this stage of their development. We made an exception for Seeing Machines because we wanted to gain exposure to the automotive safety theme and believe that the companyā€™s Driver Monitoring System (DMS) has great potential, both as an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) and as a key component in future semi-autonomous vehicles. The companyā€™s size and relative immaturity is reflected in the position size.ā€Ā