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Seeing Machines storms CES

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All the news coming out of CES is very positive for Seeing Machines and I’m more confident than ever that it’s on target to take 75% of the global DMS market over the next few years. (Naturally, Seeing Machines itself and its broker Cenkos prefer to state a target of 30-40% publicly).

The tie-up with Qualcomm was probably the highlight of the show for me and it’s great to hear that they’re both working with a “global premium automaker”. It has been suggested it is a new OEM, if it is I assume a more detailed RNS will eventually be published.

Yet the partnership with Qualcomm, apparently at the latter’s instigation, may also be much more significant than many realise. It opens the possibility of marrying industry leading eye-tracking with chips that can go inside mobile devices and VR/AR headsets. It is potentially a huge opportunity and some speculate that a lucrative licence deal is possible for Seeing Machines. (If so, let’s hope it arrives sooner than the “imminent” Aviation licencing deal that we are still waiting for!).

Further out, robots/cars should soon be capable of displaying empathy using eye-tracking that can also interpret cognitive load/read facial gestures.

With EU safety legislation now law, and other countries set to follow Europe’s lead, the near-term future is increasingly bright for SEE. Indeed, this is a company that should be worth billions right now.

Volvo

Strangely, though, there has been silence re. Volvo. My industry contacts tell me it has finally decided who will be supplying its DMS and I’m pretty confident it will be Seeing Machines as it’s the only system that can accurately tell if a driver is incapacitated – a feature teased by Volvo in early 2019.

I expect it will first feature in the 2021/22 Volvo XC90 but Volvo are staying tight lipped as are Seeing Machines and the likely Tier 1, Bosch.

While the share price has been motoring, the next trading update (expected in a week or so) should provide further proof that fleet is set to comfortably beat full-year estimates.

This is a stock on the move and I’m increasingly confident that a huge re-rating is just a matter of weeks away.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Resistance isn’t futile: it is crucial

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As I watched this historic victory for the Conservative party unfold, I felt a mixture of emotions: disbelief, incredulity and anger, soon overcome by a wave of despondency. Sitting here in a cold dimly lit room in the early hours it was easy to become hopeless, imagining oneself alone and in minority.

Yet, despite romping home with a thumping Parliamentary majority the Tories don’t have a majority of the electorate. They were backed by a minority of electors across the UK (43.6%). They won in England and Wales because of our first-past the-post election system. A majority of the country still oppose their policies. That point should be remembered.

The platform the Labour Party stood on was a progressive one that made sense and seems to have been well received. However, its changed Brexit stance was unpopular in its northern heartlands. 

What have we learnt?

My initial takeaways from this are the following:

  • This ‘Brexit’ election was a freak and those in Labour heartlands who voted Tory this time around will regret their actions when they realise they’ve been conned by Boris Johnson, one of smartest, most deceitful politicians in British electoral history. (Disraeli, eat your heart out).
  • The Labour right wing will try and reverse the progressive moves made under Corbyn. This must be resisted. Labour didn’t lose because its social, economic and climate change policies were unpopular. It lost because a large chunk of voters in its traditional heartlands in England & Wales didn’t like its Brexit stance.
  • Scotland has spoken out as clearly as England & Wales: it wants the SNP and to have an independence referendum. That has to be respected. All progressive people should support this wish as Boris Johnson will try and avoid doing so. Indeed supporting the right of Scotland to have a democratic independence referendum is a touchstone for every progressive. Scottish resistance in the event of the Tories refusing to allow an Independence Referendum should be fully supported.
  • We must change the electoral system to some form of Proportional Representation, as the current system isn’t fair. I’d be saying that even if Labour had won a majority.
  • Re. climate change, I doubt Boris Johnson will do what needs to be done. Time is short, so mass civil peaceful disobedience has to be one means to push for change in the future. Again, progressives should fully support these actions.
  • We need to develop our own media to communicate progressive ideas to the masses. BBCNews and the mainstream media is effectively controlled by the establishment. It was able to effectively influence this election.

Remain is now dead for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. That has to be accepted. But resistance to the policies that penalise the poor, increase division and racism in our society should be resolutely opposed.

This morning Labour is down as are the Greens and Lib Dems, but never out. Millions are relying on Jeremy Corbyn and his successor to continue to resist the forces of oppression and neo-liberal economic policies as they fight against climate change.

Resistance isn’t futile, it’s crucial if we are to get progressive change. That’s what enabled people to win the vote from the grasping hands of the establishment.

This is a battle lost but the fight for a fairer, more environmentally-friendly world must continue if we are to win the war.

Jeremy Corbyn

I am sure Jeremy Corbyn knows that much better than me.

Personally, I’d like to say thank you to him for staying the course and putting up with an unprecedented vilification campaign. He’s the reason I rejoined the Labour Party after disillusionment over the the Iraq War. He is a wise man.

Remember, resistance isn’t futile: it is crucial. We must keep fighting for what we know to be right. 

Good luck.

Investors express annoyance with Seeing Machines

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Following my last blog, institutional investors have fired a shot across the boughs of management by voting against the remuneration package of CEO Paul McGlone.

Approximately 31% of votes cast were against his ‘Termination Benefits’ package, which had rather soft targets. Still, if good news isn’t forthcoming in the very near future I think he may be glad to have got them in the bag.

In my experience if several IIs are prepared to publicly vote against such a package, many more would have been annoyed by the CEO getting a bonus before delivering the goods.

Fleet fixed

Speaking of deliveries, I firmly believe that fleet is fixed and upwards of 20,000 Guardian units have been installed worldwide. However, the company insists on not releasing this material information to all investors – though it was inadvertently leaked by a distributor in Chile.

Instead, like a tired politician, they are chanting the mantra of “Let’s get the interims done,” while bandying about a 16k figure that is 5 months old, as if it has any meaning.

Worse, the information on the distributor’s website has been doctored in a rather rough and ready way. It now reads (in translation): “Guardian saves lives in more than 24 countries in the world, monitoring more than 20,000 vehicles in mining and commercial fleet vehicles.”

So all of a sudden we’re supposed to believe no new Guardian units have been installed in 5 months? Also that fleet and CAT are no longer split? It’s the worse cover up since Boris Johnson insisted that the NHS is safe in his hands. 

I appreciate management want to surprise investors with good news but if price sensitive it needs to come out in a timely manner. How about a pre-Xmas trading update? Consider it a stocking filler to your long-suffering investors – who’ve just awarded the CEO the biggest present of his life.

As an aside, it’s worth remembering that institutional investors, being a little old fashioned, really do value integrity and openness. For example, they’d be annoyed if the company held back news on say, a new Tier 1 distributor, if it was deemed material.

The writer still holds shares in Seeing Machines.

Seeing Machines to surprise on upside

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I spoke with 2 fund managers last week about Seeing Machines. I won’t reveal their names here but what they said reinforced my opinion that the revelation that fleet is well and truly fixed, coupled with proof that breakeven is imminent (when the Aviation licensing deal is signed), will really move the share price in the very near future.

The first fund manager knew and liked Seeing Machines but, because he runs a large fund, can’t invest in companies below a £200m market cap. 

The second fund manager used to hold Seeing Machines but sold because it appeared to have too many issues and there was no sign of breakeven. 

Their views are probably replicated ten times over with other fund managers, which means that there is a large weight of money ready and willing to come into SEE once it effectively communicates the fact that fleet is fixed and breakeven is coming very soon.

Admittedly, there must also be holders who have lost patience, particularly as the company appears to be in no rush to provide detailed updates on the progress on Fleet. I’m personally tired of hearing the figure of 16,000 fleet installations given out for months on end.

Fleet

My own view, as revealed at the CMD, is that Fleet installations must be at least 20,000 right now. It’s therefore great to discover that this figure appears to be correct, since it has been published on the website of Seeing Machines’ Latin American distributor in Chile. It has on its homepage the words: “Guardian salva vidas en mas de 30 paises del mundo monitoreando mas de 20.000 vehiculos en tiempo real.” Translated into english it means: “Guardian saves lives in more than 30 countries in the world by monitoring more than 20,000 vehicles in real time.”

Screen Shot 2019-11-21 at 13.58.00

Given this is the case, why isn’t Seeing Machines communicating this to investors and the wider market? Moreover, why isn’t Cenkos upgrading its projections?

Instead, the market is still being provided with the laughable estimate from Cenkos that fleet will only deliver revenue of A$20.9m for the full year 2020, based on uber conservative numbers that are even below Seeing Machines unrealistically low estimate of 27k-30k installations.

This is what Cenkos wrote in its note of 23 September, 2019 “….our Fleet connection forecasts are based on connections below the guidance of 27k-30k”.

One might reasonably ask for these projections to be updated. Still the questions remains, why haven’t they been updated? Okay, Cenkos is the house broker and is pretty dependent on Seeing Machines for a steer, so why haven’t they had it?

Reading an old blog post on Safestocks, I was reminded how management priorities differ from those of private investors.

There is an additional reason, I believe. Naturally, a prudent new CEO wants to have something up their sleeve to impress the market. Let’s not forget that Seeing Machines has disappointed investors many times over the past 5 years. The onus really is on him to deliver and keep on delivering.

The good news is that I think that is what is in store for investors in Seeing Machines. In short I expect fleet upgrades by the interims (at the latest) and then again for the finals.  Forget estimates of 27k-30k fleet units for this financial year, backed by uber conservative figures from Cenkos. The actual figures for installations should be nearer the 35k mark, which will blow away the existing estimates.

In addition, I expect such upgrades to be preceded by an RNS announcing an aviation licensing deal with with L3 Harris and/or CAE, that provides an upfront payment and ongoing royalties. If it lives up to the billing from Paul McGlone in a recent interview I expect it to bring forward breakeven from the end of calendar year 2021 to June 2020 this financial year.

That news, when eventually delivered, will cause a huge re-rating as IIs, who’ve lost interest or sat on the sidelines, jump into this stock.

For long suffering investors in Seeing Machines vindication is close at hand.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

The Pretenders are dead, long live the King of DMS

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At yesterday’s Capital Markets Day for Seeing Machines it was standing room only, as Colin Barden an independent analyst at Semicast Research presented the news that investors in Seeing Machines have long waited to hear: though the coronation has been delayed, it will be the King of DMS.

It was hard news for rivals but, in one slide, Barnden presented his projections for the market shares come 2022. He estimates 40-45% for Seeing Machines, followed by 15-20% for Mitsubishi Electric. All other rivals are left lagging far, far behind, with Smart Eye in particular estimated at 5-7%.

That said, I saw no evidence of complacency from the Seeing Machines staff, quite the reverse. McGlone, in particular, came across as a man determined to deliver profitable growth. He certainly doesn’t look like the sort of guy who will let a rival eat his lunch.

Paul McGlone, CEO, Seeing Machines

Paul McGlone, CEO, Seeing Machines

The growing interest in its DMS technology was clear from the host of analysts I met at the event: Sanjay Jha of Panmure Gordon, Lorne Daniel at FinnCap, Caspar Trenchard at Canaccord Genuity and even one from Steifel (there may well have been others). I’m sure the house broker Cenkos was represented but house analyst Jean-Marc Bunce was the invisible man on this occasion.

Fleet

Probably, a wise decision on Bunce’s part as I’ve been trying to find out why he’s taken such a conservative stance on fleet. In his note dated 23rd September he states on page 1: “We believe the guidance for 27-30k connections at the end of FY20 is conservative and underpinned by a strong pipeline.”

Yet on page 4, he contradicts this, becoming ultra conservative, when he writes: “….our Fleet connection forecasts are based on connections below the guidance of 27-30k”.

I wondered why he decided to do this and also upon what number of fleet connections he actually based his projected revenue figure of A$20.9m? By my calculations to arrive at A$20.9m he must have used less than 18,000 installations, which does appear excessively low.

Yesterday the new CEO, Paul McGlone was in combative mood as he faced down attempts to extract projections on the number of Fleet sales for 2020, sticking to guidance of 27-30k. He even declined to provide a current figure. I assume this is because Seeing Machines hopes to upgrade at the interims and doesn’t want to spoil the surprise. Personally, I don’t particularly like surprises even to the upside.

The reduction in the unit cost of Gen 2 Guardian by 21% announced yesterday must surely drive increased uptake from fleets as will the increasing number of distributors and deals with insurers.

Mike Lenne, the Human Factors expert who heads up Fleet does appear to be its secret weapon when it comes to persuading Fleets to use their technology to improve safety. HIs calm, analytical approach should pay dividends and puts Seeing Machines in a league of its own.

It was the first time I’ve met Tim Edwards, one of the original brains behind the technology along with fellow co-founder of the company Sebastien Rougeaux. Edwards comes across as a very modest man, particularly for a genius who jointly developed this life-saving technology.

Aviation

While CEO McGlone and Pat Nolan, who heads up Aviation, were chided slightly for building up expectations re. an aviation licensing deal with CAE and L3 Harris, I got the impression such a deal is at most a 2-3 months away. We’ll see I guess. The great news is that end users (such as Alaska Airlines) are now requesting that manufacturers of full flight simulators now have eye-tracking from Seeing Machines.

Auto

As for Nick DiFiore, who heads up Auto, I’m expecting him to deliver a lot. Volvo for one, VW for another pretty soon. Followed by Japanese OEMs. Oem decision-making has been the main reason for delays up to this point but See does appear remarkably well positioned with Xilinx to grab market share from Nvidia and Mobileye. The fact that Fovio can identify an incapacitated driver makes it a shoo-in for Volvo and parent Geely may well have decided it needs it too.

The US market really needs to hear this in its own accent and so it was good to be told by Paul McGlone that it will be getting a US broker. I do hope it is Morgan Stanley. I’ve long wished to read/hear Adam Jonas extol the virtues of Seeing Machines.

Overall then, while I would have liked more opportunity and time for detailed questions, I feel that further patience will be handsomely rewarded here. Of course, every investor should do their own research.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

SEE: when will you deliver for investors?

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I’ve tried being subtle, not that it suits me. Still the question now needs to be asked, when will Seeing Machines start delivering, instead of taking from its investors?

I’m concerned that the management of Seeing Machines has long forgotten that it runs the company not for itself but for its investors. This was brought home to me by a quick look at the latest Annual Report.

A case in point is the huge payment that Ex-CEO Ken Kroeger received last year: A$654K (£347K), revealed on page 47. That’s great pay considering the share price plummeted 75%. Admittedly, AIM CEOs are well known for paying themselves well regardless of performance, but (as a shareholder) I find this instance especially outrageous.

Nor does it end there, as staff recently received huge share bonuses for work over the same period. Clearly, management aren’t sharing the pain with us long-term investors.

I’d hoped that new CEO Paul McGlone would chart a new path but I don’t see it yet. Here are 3 issues I personally have:

  • There still seems to be no discernible PR strategy in place. For example, SEE has a fancy US PR firm that don’t seem able to generate mass coverage for what is an easy sell to editors; car tech that saves lives. As a case in point, when I tried to get some simple answers to some obvious questions about their RNS on Alaska Airlines recently they failed to deliver. Am I being singled out for special treatment or are all journalists treated so poorly?
  • Lack of transparency for shares awards to the CEO; why have no targets been set and communicated via RNS? This is how SEE do it. This is how another AIM company, Parity did it. Take a look at page 17 of Seeing Machines’ annual report to learn about a remuneration policy with no policy.
  • Lack of disclosure re. relationships with partners. For example, what is going on with Mix Telematics and why aren’t we being told? It’s been years since a contract was signed and we still have yet to see it bear any fruit. Hiding behind NDAs just looks weak.

I hope next week at the Capital Markets Day the management under new CEO Paul McGlone will adjust course and address longstanding investor concerns about the lack of transparency and poor news flow. After all, investing should work for the many, not the few.

This isn’t meant to knock the staff of Seeing Machines or its technology. I have the highest respect for the brilliant technology coming out of this company and the dedication of the majority of its staff to delivering life-saving technology to the masses. I just want more transparency and better execution from management.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

DMS requirement to become law in EU

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I can now confirm that the new European Union ‘General Safety Regulation’ rules are set to enter into force in January/February 2020, then start applying 30 months later.

The process, I’ve been told by an EU spokesperson, is as follows:

  1. The Council of the EU decides to adopt by accepting the European Parliament’s (EP) amendments to the Commission Proposal (8th November)
  2. Then the act is signed by the President of the EP and the General Secretary of the Council in the week beginning 25th November.
  3. Within a month it gets published in the Official Journal of the EU.  The act in this case provides that it enters into force (obtains legal existence) 20 days after publication in the OJ.

The act also provides for a 30-month transitional period for most provisions, which means it will only start to apply 30 months after entry into force.

Note: the exact date(s) will be known only once the act has been published in the OJ as all deadlines depend on that date.

2020 the year of DMS

Enough of EU procedures: the good news is that from 2020 there will be a legal requirement for all completely new car models to have systems to monitor drivers for drowsiness and also distraction by June 2022, while even refreshed models will have to comply by 2024.

Euro NCAP, which has traditionally set car safety standards well beyond legislative requirements, is pushing equally hard for advanced driver monitoring. It is developing test and assessment protocols that will be introduced at the beginning of 2021. Moreover, requirements to measure driver distraction and fatigue/drowsiness will be built into Euro NCAP’s 5 star safety ratings from 2022.

Thatcham Research, is also working with Euro NCAP to develop testing protocols to ensure future cars have effective driver monitoring systems.

While these regulations and standards are intended to be ‘technology neutral’, it is now obvious that the only technology that can effectively meet these requirements is camera-based DMS.

This is very positive news for Seeing Machines, in particular, and I’m expecting some big auto contracts to be announced soon.

The writer still holds SEE stock!

CAT-style Aviation licence deal is coming

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The announcement by Seeing Machines that it is collaborating with Alaska Airlines is significant as it underlines its intention to extract value from its leadership position in this niche of the Aviation market.

In a note issued today by house broker Cenkos, analyst John-Marc Bunce reiterated Seeing Machines’ determination to sign a CAT-style license agreement with two major aviation simulator manufacturers.

Bunce wrote: “With Seeing Machines many years ahead of its nearest rival in this sector, it is looking like the company could be in a strong negotiating position in discussions with the two major simulator manufacturers for a license. We believe a successful outcome could include an upfront payment as well as a value driven or recurring royalty element.”

It doesn’t require too much detective work to find out who these two are likely to be but, as I don’t want to prejudice any final negotiation or comms plan, I’ll avoid speculating publicly for the time being.

Such a deal should certainly bring forward breakeven and act as a catalyst for a significant re-rating. This is before the announcement of further auto OEM auto wins in Europe — never mind Japan.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Time to re-rate SEE 2.0

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Seeing Machines’ (AIM: SEE) full year results indicated strongly that the issues that affected its fleet division are fixed and I expect news flow over the next few months to drive a significant re-rating.

In a note issued yesterday, house broker Cenkos upgraded its price target to 12p. Analyst John-Marc Bunce explained: ‘We believe the turnaround in fleet will drive the company to profitability in under 2 years with the cash runway looking sufficient even before accounting  for licensing deals or financing against recurring revenues.”

This was reiterated in a webcast from CEO Paul McGlone today in which he assured investors: “Fleet is fixed and starting to perform”. He added that there were no plans for a dilutive equity fundraise in his 3-year plan. Moreover, an aviation licence deal (expected to happen before year end) would effectively mean the company is funded to profitability.

Fortunately, the new CEO seems to have pressed the reset button and confirmed that over the past 6 months he has made significant changes: “The business is now focused on profitable revenue, we don’t chase strategic business.”

Cenkos has pencilled in a conservative (how I dislike that word) A$47.5m revenue figure for the full year to June 2020, with a pre-tax loss of A$35.9m. Thereafter losses fall in 2021 to A$10.6m and SEE reaches profitability in 2022 (A$47.5m).

I think these estimates will be revised over the course of the coming year, bringing forward breakeven by at least a year.

After so many years of disappointment and failure to deliver against financial targets I think this will be a transformational year for Seeing Machines. It will hinge on these 3 things happening:

  1. Acceleration in the installation of Guardian in fleets and cheaper units produced in H2.
  2. More auto OEM contract wins.
  3. Aviation licence deal by the year end.

 

Positives

Fortunately, signs look good for all three.

  1. Fleet growth should accelerate further this year as Cenkos confirms: “We believe the guidance for 27k-30k connections at the end of FY2020 is conservative and underpinned by a strong pipeline.” Moreover, the unit costs of Guardian are due to come down significantly from the the second half of this financial year, driving more profit. In addition, McGlone today revealed that SEE is expecting solid growth in the US market.
  2. I’m expecting two existing US customers to extend their existing contracts and Seeing Machines to win two more OEMs in Europe very soon. This is aside from continued progress in Asia over the course of this financial year.
  3. We now know (after the webcast) that Aviation licence deals are coming soon. That will improve the bottom line without involving significant risks and costs.

Lest we forget, there is also a bigger game afoot, as Bunce pointed out in his note:

“… one could argue that Seeing Machines has greater strategic value than Mobileye has as we highlight the ever-increasing importance for reliable face, eye and emotion tracking in the real world for many applications beyond automotive and transportation; from retail, medical, personal robots and personal computing devices. This value would be seen not just but major chip and software platform providers like Intel, but also the world’s tech giants.”

I’d advise all investors to do their own research and the above is my opinion only.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.