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Seeing Machines seals Amazon contract in the US

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Seeing Machines (AIM: SEE) has finally won the Amazon.com contract for Guardian Gen 3, which should be the first of many decent-size Gen 3 contracts over the next few months. 

In an RNS issued today Seeing Machines confirmed that it has won the “US-based multinational” and would support the initial installation of 1,100 Guardian units, which are scheduled for completion by this December. Discussions are also ongoing for further expansion in the New Year for Amazon’s heavy truck fleet.

According to information I’ve obtained (which are likely to be an underestimate), Amazon in the US has a fleet of approximately 1,645 tractors (cabs) and 12,835 trucks. 

KPIs

Seeing Machines also released its latest set of KPIs for Q1 FY 2026, with confirmation that it now has 4.24m cars on the road with its DMS technology. An additional 510,000 cars were produced in the latest quarter, 4% up on the previous quarter, demonstrating continued growth in what is traditionally a subdued quarter.

Sales of Guardian Gen 3, at 368, did disappoint. However this was due to delayed large deals, which are now coming through as is clear from the Amazon win.

In a note issued today, analyst Peter McNally from house broker Stifel commented: “Guardian unit sales in the quarter were 368 (fiscal Q425: 2,536) as certain expected deals slipped into the current quarter, including a significant aftermarket order announced today for the 1.1k units before December 2025. This means that shipments in Q2 so far are already greater than 2,600 units and therefore have been more of an issue of timing rather than quantity, as we are less than halfway through fiscal Q2.”

He added: “The aftermarket pipeline remains healthy, with multiple pilots and commercial contracts progressing, and partnerships such as Mitsubishi Electric Automotive America expected to support production scaling through FY26. We estimate current quarterly capacity at roughly 6k units with c.$800 ASP and ~40% gross margin, highlighting improved unit economics versus Gen-2 and stronger leverage potential as volumes rebuild.”

Importantly, CEO Paul McGlone has confirmed: “We remain on track to achieve our cashflow break-even run rate target by the end of this calendar year.” 

While some traders have cashed out their winnings, most investors are holding as the share price rise seems set to continue, as auto volumes ramp in anticipation of EU legislation that comes into force in July 2026. Also, tougher Euro NCAP safety ratings apply from January 2026 and will necessitate a camera-based DMS/OMS for a car to achieve a 5 star safety rating.

McNally’s view is clear: “We expect momentum to build through FY26 as full compliance with the July 2026 GSR mandate approaches. Seeing Machines remains the DMS market leader with over 4.2m vehicles deployed, ahead of Smart Eye (~2m). With customers representing c.12.5m of the 16.1m European vehicles forecast to be sold in Europe in 2026, the installed base should continue compounding, though the pace of inflection will vary by OEM depending on inventory and model cycles.”

In addition, I expect multiple new contract wins in auto and aftermarket to materialise by Christmas.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Stifel reiterates ‘Buy’ with 9.6p price target

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Following on from the news that VW has started production in China, with Seeing Machines DMS and OMS tech in Magna’s rearview mirror, Stifel has reiterated its 9.6p price target and confirms SEE as one of its top picks.

In a flash note issued today, Stifel analyst Peter McNally wrote:

“The significance to us is that production is happening on time. As we heard at the Townhall event earlier this year, Seeing Machines was expecting the start of production of a number of programmes this year with one significant one over the summer (which we believe happened on time) and a second larger one later in the year. So, the announcement is good news that it is starting toward the early part of calendar Q4.

“We also note that this is for both DMS and OMS which typically indicates better ASP than DMS alone. We see this as a positive development as the company approaches its target of run-rate cash flow break-even by the end of the year.

“We don’t think this announcement has anything to do with the Magna loan but is purely signaling that the production ramp is starting on time. We should be getting fiscal Q2 KPIs in the next couple of weeks. The company remains one of our top picks at 14.4x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Buy.”

It should be remembered that current broker estimates don’t include estimates for revenue from sales in China, so I’m expecting broker upgrades in due course.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Magna confirms Seeing Machines mirror winning OEMs

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In its Q3 earning update on 31 October Magna confirmed that its DMS/OMS rearview mirror with Seeing Machines technology is being launched into additional car manufacturers aside from Volkwswagen.

The Magna CEO Seetarama Kotagiri stated in his investor overview last Friday that “
in advanced safety, our mirror integrated driver and occupant monitoring system is meeting growing global demand for DMS technologies.

As you may recall, this product earned a 2024 Automotive News PACE Award for its innovation and safety impact. We are launching this system with multiple customers worldwide and volumes are expected to reach several million units annually.”

This is encouraging news as we await the latest set of KPIs from Seeing Machines this week. I expect them to confirm its lead in automotive and growing traction in sales of Guardian Gen 3, while we wait for some huge contracts in the latter. 

Indeed, while Smart Eye has only now hit 3m cars on the road with its tech, Seeing Machines is set to speed past 4m, on the way to 5m by the end of the year.

Toyota 

The news last week of progress in Japan, with an OEM that I believe is Toyota, failed to make much impact on the share price. I found that surprising as the engineering work on this cutting edge interior monitoring system (featuring both DMS and OMS) will generate not insignificant revenues, industry estimates vary from $4-5m.

Of course, much more significant is the near certainty that this Advanced Development Project will lead to a very large contract from this OEM in the first half of 2026.

That contract alone will increase the price any acquirer will eventually have to pay for Seeing Machines.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Trucking publishes article on Driver Monitoring

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Trucking magazine has published an article on driver monitoring systems (DMS).

The article makes it clear that cutting edge, camera-based DMS, equipped with Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) as well as Driver Drowsiness and Attention Warning (DDAW), will be required in all new trucks sold in the EU and UK from July 7, 2026.

Conclusions

Research contained within the article specifically confirms:

  1. All new trucks from the major European truck manufacturers (Volvo Trucks, Daimler Trucks, DAF, Iveco, Scania and MAN) will meet the mandatory regulations by July 7, 2026.
  2. This means truck manufacturers are in the process of installing these systems from suppliers.
  3. While the systems may be badged as coming from Tier 1s – as with cars – the suppliers are ultimately the likes of Seeing Machines, Smart Eye and Tobii.
  4. Seeing Machines Gen 3 Guardian is technically the most advanced system with 94% accuracy (meaning only 6% false positives). Neither of its two main competititors could even provide a figure for accuracy.

Read a PDF of the article below. (There is a howler of a typo that has been introduced into the edited copy, which I am trying to get changed..Grrrr).

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

TRUCKING Driver Distraction Download

Seeing Machines is a strong buy

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Today’s RNS announcing yet another contract for Seeing Machines Gen 3 Guardian aftermarket product is further confirmation that the company is set to hit cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year. 

Although the bus manufacturer wasn’t named directly, the 5-year contract must surely be with Wrightbus with whom Seeing Machines was already supplying its Guardian Gen 3 driver montitoring technology, after achieving homologation in July 2024.

Homologation for Gen 3 Guardian is also taking place with another 4 OEMs, representing 4,000 additional vehicles annually.

This follows a very positive video presentation yesterday from CEO Paul McGlone and CFO Martin Ive, in which they confirmed:

  • Seeing Machines is on track for cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year.
  • Approximately 2m cars a quarter will be hitting the road with its DMS from July 2026 (around 33 minutes 40 seconds). 
  • OEMs are collectively telling Seeing Machines that half of the auto RFQs that SEE has worked on are planned to be awarded by December this year, with the other half due in the second half of this financial year. (From around 15 minutes and 10 seconds)
  • Following successful trials, they are in final stage, “commercial negotiations” for the biggest ever Gen 3 contract in the US and another big one in the EU.  (Around 19 minutes).

I personally think the US negotiation is with Amazon and the European one is with Shell, which was surely the company mentioned in today’s RNS: “The company is also progressing towards a European-wide contract in the Oil and Gas sector, with Guardian already deployed in the UK and four other European countries.”

Peter McNally, analyst at house broker Stifel, in a typically perceptive flash note added that the current number of units deployed by this oil & gas major is 200. Therefore, I’m expecting many multiples of this when Shell finally sign the latest Gen 3 contract. Shell places great emphasis on improving safety outcomes and Guardian Gen 3 will deliver that.

I’m shocked that Seeing Machines is still sub 3p but, when the sceptics realise that it’s no longer a jam tomorrow company, rather a jam factory, that price will shoot up. 

Refinancing not an issue

Even the issue of refinancing the Magna loan of approximately $62m should hold no terrors, as Peter McNally pointed out in a note yesterday:

“Seeing Machines’ convertible loan comes due in October 2026 and unless shares go through the conversion price of 9.95p, it will likely have to refinance $61.9m of debt. We think there’s a small chance that Magna could extend the loan, but we don’t rely on that happening. Rather, we think the company will be in a good position to refinance.”

Personally, I expect the issue will disappear as the share price quickly goes north of 10p. Moreover, I do still expect Mitsubishi to make an offer for Seeing Machines before then. 

Mitsubishi partnership

This isn’t mere conjecture. In yesterday’s video presentation Paul McGlone even laid it out before investors; that Mitsubishi is leading discussions as to how Seeing Machines technology can be used in adjacent markets (9m) to benefit Mitsubishi.

“With Mitsubishi working with us in parallel they’ve identified a range of new adjacent markets where they have significant strength around the world, and we are now in the early stages of planning to determine where we can implement our technology to ENHANCE THEIR EXISTING CAPABILITIES (my emphasis). And of this portfolio of  opportunities 
both insurance and smart factory are the ones that we’ve prioritised together and are being led by Mitsubishi.”

To me it’s crystal clear that Mitsubishi needs and wants Seeing Machines. Still, it’s not the only company that is likely to bid for Seeing Machines, as previously stated. Admittedly, the timeline for a bid is probably more likely to be April 2026 than this year – but that’s not so long to wait. Moreover, it makes a higher price more likely. What’s not to like?

How many times does an investor get to buy a stock that is set to go up at least 5-10x in a year? Of course, do your own research – but don’t be too long about it.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Volkswagen confirms SEE DMS in all Tayron models

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There has been a lot of confusion recently regarding whether Seeing Machines driver monitoring system, located in the rearview mirror, will be in all VW Tayron models.

VW has confirmed to me that: “The ‘driver monitoring camera’ is standard in Europe (including the UK) for Tayron.

They even set me a photo of Seeing Machines DMS camera in the Magna rearview mirror, which illustrates this article.

The rearview mirror will be rolled out across the entire VW car range sold in Europe from now on, to meet Euro NCAP protocols and EU regulations. In addition, Audi has just launched the Q3 with Seeing Machines DMS in the rearview mirror.

Additional information

Given the rise today and the increasing volume of buys, I think it’s possible that at least one shrewd fund manager has checked out my left-field Mitsubishi bid thesis and found it plausible. Expect more such rises as those contracts come rolling in and more funds take the plunge.

Separately, I was impressed by this case study link found by a private investor called ‘Klick’ on the Seeing Machines website that shows its technology being used in an industrial setting, at a reversing mill owned by Logan Aluminium. Mitsubishi can surely make great use of this technology in various industrial applications. Incidentally, Mitsubishi through its JV Primetals Technologies produces equipment for reversing mills.

Does anyone else think it a mere coincidence that this case study is coming out now? It makes sense to me that Seeing Machines and Mitsubishi warm up their respective investors for a deal.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Why Seeing Machines should be included in the ‘Humanoid 100’.

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As Morgan Stanley recently outlined in a broker note, robots represent the physical embodiment of AI, which appears to be why they are in the process of becoming THE hottest sector of tech. Yet, despite producing a brilliant note Morgan Stanley has overlooked one key player in its round-up of the top 100 players; Seeing Machines.

That may well be because, unlike the likes of Mobileye, Alphabet and Meta it has a miniscule market cap and resides in a stockmarket slum called AIM. Regardless, someone soon is going to want to marry this beauty. Let me explain why.

To quote the broker note of 6th February: “The physical embodiment of AI touches a $60tn Total Addressable Market (TAM), global GDP, and the meaning of work.”

In that note Morgan Stanley presented the ‘Humanoid 100’, which it described as “a global mapping of equities across a range of sectors and regions that may have an important role in bringing robots from the lab to your living room”.

It used this graphic to illustrate a rudimentary division of these companies into those developing the brain and body value chains.

I’d argue that Seeing Machines should be included in the portion of the Brain (Vision & Compute Semiconductors), which as it currently stands is overly simplistic. For true robots to be successful they will need to develop an understanding of the cognitive state of humans, perhaps even display traits we’d associate with empathy. 

I think SEE sits in the same niche as Mobileye in that diagram. “These are the companies producing semiconductors that are the core of the robot “brain”, allowing robots to learn from, perceive, and/or interact with their environments. Vision-focused semis lie at the edge and allow robots to visualize their environments,” states the note. However, Seeing Machines does something special: it allows robots to visualise humans


It is Seeing Machines, with its software and hardware, that can literally breathe life into robots. As Victor Frankenstein would have exclaimed: “It will pioneer a new way, explore unknown powers, and unfold to the world the deepest mysteries of creation.”

Mobile robots

Still skeptical? Well, Seeing Machines is displaying that technological capability and is applying it to mobile robots; cars, with its AI-powered driver monitoring.

Its technology uses advanced machine vision technology to precisely measure and analyse head pose, eyelid movements and eye gaze under a full spectrum of demanding in-vehicle lighting conditions. This data is then processed to interpret driver attention state, drowsiness, and impairment levels.

That same technology is also enabling an eco-system that provides highly intelligent vehicle interfaces that employ AI to not just respond to speech commands, but to understand more subtle cues from occupants as indicated by hand gestures and eye movements.

Is it so fanciful to imagine that in the near future the ability to assess reduced cognitive ability and understand more subtle clues could be vital for ‘care’ robots used to look after elderly or vulnerable charges. 

Recognition of its ability in the transport sector has brought partners rushing to sign deals with Seeing Machines – many of whom feature in the ‘Humanoid 100’ list. Yet, its latent qualities in the sphere of robotics remains unrecognised by most. Hence, its current market cap belies the true value within. That cannot last much longer
 Do you hear wedding bells?

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Volkswagen’s small ‘BEV for All’ will feature Seeing Machines technology

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Volkswagen has confirmed that its Volkswagen ID2, set to go on sale in 2026, will feature a camera-based driver monitoring system (DMS) in its rear view mirror. Powered by Seeing Machines technology it is expected to feature both driver and occupant monitoring.

This small battery electric vehicles (BEV), based on the ID2.all concept, which was revealed in 2023, is intended to be a huge seller for the German car company. It is expected to retail for around ÂŁ22k for the entry-level model. 

As a spokesperson for Volkswagen confirmed: “The all-new Volkswagen T-Roc and our up-coming small BEV will be the next vehicles to be equipped with the camera-based DMS from start of production. Since the function (Attention and Drowsiness Assist) will be required by EU law from mid-2026, we are working on equipping all other vehicles with a camera-based DMS.”

Seeing Machines has previously stated that when it comes to cost and packaging complexity, its integrated rear-view mirror (RVM) solution, offered exclusively by the Tier 1 Magna, is best in class.

I’m therefore expecting many other car manufacturers who are late to the DMS/OMS party (but whose cars sell in Europe and are therefore required to meet GSR2 mandatory safety legislation) to choose the rear view mirror solution for their new cars.

Seeing Machines’ cutting-edge DMS/OMS is also available in a two camera-solution, should car manufacturers wish to use that.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Will Seeing Machines win Japanese car contracts in Q1CY 2025?

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I’m optimistic that we will see a contract with at least one Japanese car manufacturer, possibly several, announced prior to Seeing Machines’ London presentation for investors on April 2nd. 

On December 23rd, 2024 Stifel analyst Peter McNally announced in a broker note: “We see potential for significant technological synergies through the combination of Mitsubishi’s innovations with Seeing Machine’s existing, market leading offerings. We plan to take a closer look at this and the Japanese market in Q125.”

The promised note has yet to be published and, in my view, may be timed to coincide with important news of progress with Japanese car manufacturers. Given the urgent need for numerous Japanese OEMs to move ahead installing camera-based DMS/OMS into their vehicles I was already expecting some announcements in Q1 – the announcement of this event increases the probability that we’ll get news of important progress this quarter. 

The simple reason is that many Japanese OEMs, such as Toyota, appear to be behind in the race to install camera-based DMS in their premium vehicles being sold into Europe. It’s unthinkable that many of their new vehicles won’t get 5 Euro NCAP stars in 2026 yet, with the new 2026 Euro NCAP protocols coming into effect in January 1st 2026, they have less than a year to get that in place. 

So far as I am aware, the one supplier that can cost-effectively deliver a top quality DMS/OMS in that timeframe is Seeing Machines. I know Seeing Machines has a presence in Japan and my sources indicate it has certainly had conversations with many Japanese car manufacturers over the years and apparently impressed them.

Of course, I may be wrong. Therefore, it’s important to do your own research.

The writer hold stock in Seeing Machines.

Mitsubishi’s strategic stake in Seeing Machines

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A few thoughts on the strategic investment in Seeing Machines taken by Mitsubishi Electric Mobility Corporation, part of the huge Mitsubishi conglomerate.

  • It secures the cash for Seeing Machines to hit breakeven regardless of the vagaries of the economy, automotive sector or machinations of any single industry player or partner. 
  • It ensures that when a bid is made for Seeing Machine it will be at a very competitive price. The company cannot possibly go on the cheap. 
  • It provides a local partner in the Japanese market, which should make it much easier to gain a strategic stranglehold in the Japanese automotive sector, while also ensuring further diversification in its Tier 1 relationships.
  • Via Mitusubishi’s network we should see Gen 3 Guardian sales in trucks rocket from here on in. It also produces and sells buses and trucks via the FUSO brand – a collaboration with Daimler Trucks. 
  • It potentially opens up new markets to Seeing Machines technology. Mitsubishi manufacturers road construction, agricultural equipment and even forklifts, which could use Seeing Machines’ driver monitoring technology to reduce accidents caused by driver fatigue.
  • The fact that Mitsubishi was determined to take the maximum percentage of shares it could take without triggering a bid (19.9 per cent) tells me how highly it values this investment. It plans to develop more personalised robots in the future for a rapidly ageing society in Japan and combining Seeing Machines’s human fatigue/cognitive state detection with heartbeat detection would be useful features for a domestic ‘carer’ robot to have. 

Consumer Electronics Show

With the Consumer Electronics Show (Jan 7-9) expected to bring news of further license deals, the list of possible buyers of Seeing Machines grows ever longer. 

Moreover, in calendar 2025 I expect its market leadership to become both undeniable and unassailable in the medium term, as:

  • It surpasses 5m cars on the road with its DMS/OMS technology
  • It becomes profitable on a monthly basis by June.
  • Guardian goes past 100k units.
  • The Aviation product is readied for use. 

VW Tayron on sale now

The Volkswagen Tayron, which includes Seeing Machines DMS in its rear view mirror, is due to go on sale in the UK this week. 

The first UK reviews of the vehicle should take place in the spring, possibly mid-to-late March; there may well be some reviews from overseas drives before that, in late February or early March.

This should rapidly boost the profile of its life-saving technology, not to mention public interest in buying shares in a tangible AI product.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines