Category Archives: Investing

Seeing Machines rises in expectation of positive trading update

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The price of Seeing Machines is rising in expectation of it beating consensus forecasts for the 2023 full year to 30th June, when it provides its trading update on 22nd August.

To refresh your memories, here are most of the broker forecasts for Seeing Machines FY2023. Unfortunately, I’m missing that of its house broker, Stifel. 

Brokers2023 revenues (US$)2023 adjusted pre-tax loss
Cenkos 53.5m15.2m
Panmure 56.7m13.2m
Berenberg 54.1m16.8m
Peel Hunt 53.8m17.1m
Stifel


Safestocks60m11m

I’m confidently predicting that Seeing Machines will beat these estimates and have pencilled in revenues of around US$60m for 2023. I’m not even going to provide 2024 estimates as I expect all the brokers to upgrade soon. Indeed, even their initial upgrades won’t factor in likely progress over the course of the 2024 financial year.

There is also a frisson of excitement around the launch of its Gen 3 Guardian Aftermarket product. I expect to learn the date for the launch of its Gen 3 product for trucks on 22nd August. I’m hoping it is before the end of September and is announced with at least one sizeable contract — it must have been going through its paces with existing Fleet customers.

Auto and Aviation appear to be progressing well and further positive updates could well drive the price to all-time highs by this Christmas. 

EBITDA breakeven

Furthermore, I’m expecting confirmation of further news in the coming months that should send the share price into overdrive as EBITDA breakeven is brought forward. Breakeven at the EBITDA level isn’t more than 12-18 months away based on the current trajectory. Still, I expect sales to accelerate from here to such an extent that I believe there is a likelihood that we hit EBITDA breakeven by the end of the current financial year. Should brokers publicly confirm this the share price will go gangbusters.

My confidence in the near term is also strengthened by a comment from the analyst now covering Seeing Machines at Berenberg. In a note dated 21 July, 2023 Robert Chantry stated: “We also expect the company, in the medium term, to leverage its significant knowledge pool and expertise to develop new products and adjacent technologies, particularly once it has achieved breakeven at EBITDA. This might include other types of transport, as well as revenue streams relating to marketing.”

Given that Seeing Machines always plans years ahead you can be pretty confident that what Chantry opined isn’t mere conjecture.

Here are my thoughts:

  • Transport. I believe that in the past Seeing Machines has undertaken some marine trials of its technology and we know it has been used in trains. The fast-growing eVTOL market seems ripe for such tech plus there is all manner of machinery, from tractors to cranes that could perhaps do with it. It surely is a no-brainer that SEE’s tech get’s licensed to Tier 1s in other transport sectors now that it has Auto, Aftermarket (Fleet) and Aviation sewn up.
  • Marketing. Eye-tracking has been used by competitors to assess the efficacy of marketing, for instance Tobii. As Tobii has entered the DMS space (albeit with no sign of success), it seems only fair that Seeing Machines returns the favour.

Tesla

Strangely enough, I received a press release this week from CMC Markets that mentions that Tesla is the UK’s most googled S&P500 stock, with an average of 260,180 Google searches a month. In my books that is probably a sign to sell the stock. In a saner world, those people would instead be googling Seeing Machines. 

An additional irony is that Tesla really ought to be putting Seeing Machines Driver Monitoring into its vehicles. It would stop ‘bad Ted driving’ and save lives.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Tactical move widens Seeing Machines’ moat

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I think the Devant collaboration announced on the 20th June is a tactical move to widen Seeing Machines’ (AIM: SEE) moat. The data derived from real-life driver experience, known as its ‘river of gold’ has hitherto protected its AI-fuelled technological lead. Now it will be augmented by a sea of computer-generated edge cases from Devant, a specialist in synthetic data generation who is focused on the niche area of in-cabin monitoring. 

This should help Seeing Machines speed up the development of DMS and future in-cabin monitoring applications that are being demanded by the industry and regulators, putting Seeing Machines even further ahead of its competitors.

Far from an admission of weakness, this move demonstrates that Seeing Machines is doing all it can to maintain its leadership position — without breaking the bank. I don’t envisage any competitor overtaking SEE within the next 3 years. Indeed, part of me wonders if we might not end up acquiring Smart Eye or Cipia eventually. However, I’m betting Seeing Machines gets acquired within 2 years.

Auto RFQ delays 

I appreciate the lack of auto OEM contract wins being announced has rattled many of us. I think it is entirely down to OEMs waiting until the last possible moment to decide how sophisticated a DMS/OMS to use, in the light of tighter EuroNCAP regulations that are coming into force in 2026 but which still haven’t been totally tied down.

This has been confirmed to me following conversations with people at EuroNCAP — sadly, I find myself curiously unable to obtain basic information from official SEE channels following scoops that have upset some people. (But, like a would-be lover suffering from unrequited love, I am still fully invested in this brilliant company).

Q&A Euro NCAP

Here’s a brief Q&A with Euro NCAP:

I understand that the EuroNCAP 2025 protocols aren’t yet out. Can you tell me:

Q. When do you expect them to be published? 

A.  2026.

Q. What exactly is the process for their iteration and publication? Is a draft put around to the industry players for comment? If so, at what stage are they currently?

A. Currently under development, discussing the new requirements and test provisions alongside industry. 

Q. Have they been delayed, if so why?

A. Initially considered for 2025, we finally decided to switch to a 3-year cycle, so starting their implementation from 2026. This was to allow sufficient development timing for protocol development and giving industry sufficient headroom for technology adoption.

Q. What provisions regarding driver monitoring are they likely to include and how advanced are they likely to be? (I know there is a roadmap but I’m not sure about the precise details of it and how it applies to driver monitoring).

A.

  • Driving under influence (2026)
  • Optimised passive restraint systems based on occupant posture and/or size (2026)
  • Increased requirements for the precision of determination on non-reversible driver states e.g., drowsiness, unresponsive driver / sudden sickness (2026)
  • Specific provisions for Assisted and automated driving (2026)
  • Link of driver state to the way ADAS functions are tested and assessed e.g., FCW/LDW sensitivity (2026)
  • Cognitive distraction / mind wandering (2029/2032)

The writer holds stock in SEE.

When should you sell a share?

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Buying a share is easy, perhaps too easy, but when should you sell a share?

Well, renowned investor Philip Fisher explained all about this in his book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. His focus on the qualitative aspects of value investing was a big influence on Warren Buffett and this book deserves a place on the bookshelf of every investor.

I’ve recently written an article for Reader’s Digest that explains when you should sell a share, drawing on the ageless wisdom of Philip Fisher. Enjoy!

Seeing Machines announces US$10m license deal with Collins Aerospace

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Seeing Machines has announced its much anticipated Aviation license deal with Collins Aerospace, the world’s largest Tier 1 avionics company – as predicted here back in February. 

The “exclusive” and “perpetual” license deal provides a license payment of US$10m ($3m immediately and the $7m balance over the following 2 years). Collins will also pay Seeing Machines non-recurring engineering (NRE) payments to develop the solutions, evolving into potential future royalty payments as products are released to customers.

Although details as to what exactly is covered under the license were missing in the RNS, I’m hoping to eventually get some answers to those questions from the company. Or, maybe, we’ll be treated to a video of Pat Nolan taking a bow in conversation with Paul McGlone. (Certainly, both deserve a round of applause for this deal!). 

Muted response

What has really surprised me is the muted response from brokers covering the stock. None issued an upgrade, although they were all positive on the stock. Unbelievably, at the end of a huge week, the price has barely risen in response.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the 333-plane deal mentioned in the infamous ‘Italian Job’ video will materialise fairly soon. My guess is that some analysts are keeping their powder dry for that announcement. In the meantime, I can imagine paper-thin ‘Chinese walls’ mean some salespeople are telling their very special institutional clients to: “Buy, buy, buy”.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Peel Hunt initiates coverage of Seeing Machines

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Peel Hunt has initiated coverage of Seeing Machines with a 12p price target in a note published last week.

In the note Analyst Damindu Jayaweera argues: “With EU regulatory deadlines in mid-2024, we are starting to see a ramp-up in requests for quotes in the DMS market. Given its asset-light, flexible opex model, this should yield a Free Cash Flow (FCF) inflection. The well-funded balance sheet de-risks medium term.”

He went on to state: “We see further potential upside, based on the following potential catalysts:

  1. Signing an aviation licensing deal,
  2. Aftermarket product sales and accompanying monitoring contracts outstripping our estimates — as management is confident they will, and
  3. A shorter runway to there being more Seeing Machines-equipped cars on the road — again management sees upside beyond our royalties earnings estimates. 

We predict that the company will be FCF positive by 2026E, supported in the meantime by its cash reserves and the Magna facility.”

Later in the note (Page 10), Jayaweera provided more details on these potential catalysts. “First, signing an Aviation licensing deal would lead to a material uptick in revenues, as we have kept them immaterial in our forecasts. Second, Aftermarket product sales and accompanying monitoring contracts have the potential to outstrip our estimates: management is confident it can achieve over 10,000 unit sales in 2H23, >10% higher than our forecast. Finally, a shorter timeline to more equipped cars being on the road would generate upside, as we have been conservative with our royalty earnings assumptions given historical delays.”

For 2023 Jayaweera predicts sales of US$53.8m with FCF of minus $41m. Sales then continue rising to $118m in 2026, with FCF cash flow of $18m.

Certainly, long-suffering private investors should take heart that more and more analysts are starting to beat the drum for DMS and Seeing Machines in particular. 

The mantra we should be chanting is: “We weren’t wrong, we were just early”.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Panmure maintains ‘BUY’ rating with 14.6p target price

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Panmure Gordon analyst Sanjay Jha has maintained his ‘BUY’ rating on Seeing Machines but lowered his price target from 16.8p to 14.6p.

In a note issued on 31st March he explained how he derived at this valuation: “We continue to use a Sum Of The Parts valuation model to value the shares, which now generates a 13% reduction in Target Price to 14.6p. The main detractors are Automotive, where we expect a lower market share by 2030 and the increase in the number of shares as the convertible loan is fully converted. This is partly offset by increased valuation for Fleet and Off-Road based on EV/sales multiples of SaaS companies.”

According to Jha’s analysis, in Automotive he now expects SEE to gain a third of the available market by 2030 as opposed to 50% previously as it seeks to avoid highly competitive tenders, especially in China. That said, he still calculates that for the year ending June 30th 2030, SEE will generate US$162.7m from Automotive – based on it having a 33.7% share of the market with 32.5m cars in production, 110.2m cumulatively, and an average royalty of US$5.

While it remains to be seen if Seeing Machines really does take less than 50% of the market – something I personally doubt – he does believe the company is fully funded to be cash positive by the second half of the 2025 financial year. 

Market perception

Interestingly, Jha begins the note by stating: “ff the shares have failed to respond to upbeat trading updates followed by a Capital Markets Day in New York, it could be due to lower appetite for growing but loss-making stocks or because there is little confidence that the available cash resources will be enough to reach the long-promised goal of positive free cashflow. We hope it is the latter because it leaves management in no doubt that it must deliver”.

Certainly, over the next 3 months I hope to see proof that management will deliver some of the long-awaited contracts in Aviation, Fleet and Automotive. Surely, some US funds must be watching in anticipation also.

The writer holds shares in Seeing Machines. 

Take your seat for the ‘Battle of the Titans’

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Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. The ‘Battle of the Titans’, the heavyweight takeover of the decade, is about to begin. The winner will be the champion of interior vehicle monitoring for the next decade, opening up billions in new revenue streams in vehicles while also preventing accidents. It should also be able to help robots care for us humans long after that. 

With the news that Mobileye has been granted non-exclusivity to market SEE technology in the Aftermarket sector, it’s clear that the company (majority owned by Intel) needs SEE’s driver monitoring technology to complement its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). It is now able to offer a one-stop active auto safety solution to its truck and bus customer base (who according to one source currently deploy over 2m vehicles). 

I’m even willing to bet that Mobileye wanted exclusivity, but Seeing Machines preferred to play the field, as it possesses the world’s most effective driver monitoring system (DMS).

Now that the dream of fully autonomous vehicles on all our roads has been seen to be just that, a reality that is decades away, DMS has come centre stage. As Colin Barnden, analyst at Semicast, astutely realised a while back: Mobileye needed DMS, the best DMS. And it now has access to it.

With Gen 3 Guardian likely to be available from Q1 of this calendar year, it opens up the possibility of a one-stop solution for Aftermarket being available in H2 of this financial year for millions of existing Mobileye customers as well as millions more truck and bus operators in Europe who aren’t.

As the scale of the market it will capture becomes crystal clear to players (and investors) Seeing Machines’ share price should rise substantially. Explosive growth in its Aftermarket revenues will also be coupled with sizeable Auto contracts and the much-anticipated Aviation deal. Financial analysts (commonly referred to as City scribblers) will then finally start producing broker notes with spiraling upgrades, as Fund Managers pile in. Professional investors can exhibit Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) just like private investors.

What’s the timeline? It’s starting now and will be increasingly apparent with every passing month. Notably, I’m expecting a trading update on the 22nd of February with a US investor show on the 8th March. Not to mention some big contract news between now and June.

Battle of the Titans

It seems my ‘Battle of the Titans‘ prediction is slowly (oh, so slowly) coming to pass.

However, unlike a boxing contest, the battle to acquire Seeing Machines won’t be a 2-person contest with Marquis of Queensbury rules. It’s set to be a bare-knuckle bout involving strategy and multiple bidders, more akin to a contest in an episode of Alice in Borderland. As I see it, there are at least 4 main contenders:

  • Intel (majority holder in Mobileye). 
  • AMD (owner of Xilinx)
  • Qualcomm
  • Nvidia – the dark horse? 

However, lurking in the shadows are many more players who must covet the technology that Seeing Machines possesses. Some are subsidiaries of Chinese companies, such as Omnivision, but I doubt that Australia (one of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance) would allow a Chinese company to acquire such sensitive technology which could have military applications. Do the remainder have the financial muscle and nerve to outbid the above chip companies? That remains to be seen.

Once the contest really gets going, I expect one of the three ‘A’s; Apple, Alphabet and Amazon to show their hand. They have the nerve, nous and financial strength to not only outbid the above chip companies but take Seeing Machines technology to the consumer market in a huge way.

I believe that this year is finally going to be fun for holders of Seeing Machines shares. Let the contest commence.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Magna-ificent performance from Seeing Machines

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Following recent announcements relating to Magna, reinforced by analysis from CEO Paul McGlone at an investor event in London, I’m confident that Seeing Machines’ technology lead across, auto, fleet and aviation will soon start to be reflected in its share price.

The recent news that auto Tier 1 Magna is paying US$17.5m for the exclusive rights to use Seeing Machines technology in its rearview mirrors until the end of 2025, while also agreeing to invest up to an additional US$47.5m, just confirms its global leadership position in Driver and Occupant Monitoring Systems (DOMS). 

Crucially, the cash injection removes any concerns that Seeing Machines needs to raise cash. It is now fully funded to profitability in 2024.

The Canadian Tier 1 Magna has gone exclusive with Seeing Machines in rearview mirrors because it aims to the vast majority of that market, 100% has been suggested by one expert, as no real rival to their DOMS offering currently exists. By partnering with Seeing Machines it has a product that is apparently superior to that of its competitors in terms of price, performance, and time to market. That’s presumably why it won the huge A$125m VW contract in December 2021. 

By 2026, it’s likely that Magna will have won as much as 50% of the overall auto DOMS market in partnership with Seeing Machines – since half of DOMS is forecast to be delivered via rearview mirrors. Thus it will have done to its main rival Gentex what Qualcomm has done to Intel in auto. The huge VW win with Magna should have confirmed this, future wins certainly will. 

It’s no coincidence that both Magna and Qualcomm have chosen to partner exclusively with Seeing Machines. These moves should be seen as part of a strategic land grab that I expect to deliver Seeing Machines at least 75% of the auto DOMS market by volume by 2026.

That is because its competitors (Smart Eye, Cipia, and Jungo) aren’t winning anywhere near the number or volume of RFQs that Seeing Machines is. For example, Smart Eye appears to have effectively been replaced by Seeing Machines in forthcoming BMW models. The 10 BMW models featuring Smart Eye technology are from past wins, such as the X5 (2015) and M8 (2018). 

Of course, OEMs may do some dual sourcing. Speaking to Smart Eye last week its CEO Martin Krantz tentatively said that Smart Eye “will probably be in future BMWs”. I wish him luck but I don’t think it is going to be a threat to Seeing Machines going forward. 

Indeed, investors need to beware of looking in the rearview mirror at market share unless they want to crash their prospects for significant financial gains. For those paying attention to the road ahead, it’s Seeing Machines that is in the fast lane to market dominance. 

Over the past year, Seeing Machines states that it has won 80% of the RFQs for which it has bid. I’m confident it will maintain that win rate with the $A1-2 billion of contracts for which it is currently bidding.

Looking at design wins, Smart Eye currently boasts 94, while Seeing Machines has 120. However, even this figure fails to reflect the latter’s dominance. Not all of Smart Eye’s 94 ‘wins’ made it into production, in contrast, every Seeing Machines design win has hit the road. 

I’ve long admired the Smart Eye people – not least for their PR bravado – but it can’t blind me as to where I should invest my hard-earned dough. I’d also be doing readers a disservice if I didn’t state what I honestly believe. 

Following the Seeing Machines investor presentation Friday, (when the video is posted I will provide a link) I’m very confident that an inflection point has been reached.

Increased margins

From now on license revenues for vehicles hitting the roads will begin to ramp up for Seeing Machines. This is a very high-margin business as the main costs have already been borne in the development phase. It currently has a pipeline of A$395m in auto but this is expected to grow substantially over the next few years on the back of further wins.

Similarly, in aftermarket more large enterprise customers such as Shell are coming along. These margins for selling the product and the monitoring service are much higher than selling indirectly via distributors.

It should also be noted that Seeing Machines Gen 3 Guardian will be launched by the end of this financial year, opening up the prospect of huge scale-up in Fleet sales. The product has apparently been re-engineered to reduce costs yet will be better, with automotive-grade additions and much faster install times. In addition, there is huge money to be made from the service element of monitoring the drivers.

Thus, now there is clear visibility of increasing revenues and cashflows with SEE set to make huge profits over the next few years.

In addition, I’m still confident that a lucrative license deal will soon be struck to deliver See’s pilot monitoring technology into the cockpits of aircraft. Being early is the same as being wrong but I hope by Christmas I’m proven right.

Bids coming

As readers know, I’ve long believed that SEE will face a near-term bid. To that view some have argued that such is its success that it really doesn’t need a takeover to prosper, unlike some of its rivals who hope to be saved by one. I’d certainly agree with the assessment that Seeing Machines could perfectly well prosper as an independent.

However, even if Seeing Machines isn’t ‘up for sale’, it doesn’t mean that it cannot be bought. A wise man recently told me: ‘Great companies get bought NOT sold’. Well, I believe Seeing Machines is a great company.

Ask yourself, how badly must some company want what Seeing Machines has? Its technological lead, data, and market leadership would take years and many billions to replicate for even a company of the stature of Google, Apple, or Amazon. If you had the money (and they do) why wouldn’t you just buy it?

If Magna is prepared to pay millions for the exclusive use of SEE technology for a couple of years, why wouldn’t they want it permanently? Qualcomm, AMD, Intel, and Nvidia also have reasons to enter a bidding war when the starting gun is fired. Indeed, even Gentex does if it wants to win future DOMS rear-view mirror contracts and protect its market share from rivals such as Magna.

There’s even the argument that a consolidator might want Cerence and Seeing Machines to create something very special.

Value stock

As legendary value investor Irving Kahn taught, investing is an art rather than a science but I think were he alive today, he’d take an interest in Seeing Machines as it ticks many of the criteria he looked for in an investment.

The good news for investors is that they can now sit back and enjoy the ride. It has been substantially de-risked, which is why Cenkos upgraded to 25p last week. I expect the other analysts following the company to do likewise in short order as the contracts and license deals roll in. 

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Will Seeing Machines’ likely Nasdaq listing elicit a bid?

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Rumours that Seeing Machines is planning a dual listing on Nasdaq gained further credibility with the attendance of CEO Paul McGlone at a recent shindig organised by house broker Stifel to promote that very idea to clients. The question is, might a dual listing be the catalyst for a bid?

It’s long been known that a dual listing on Nasdaq has been under consideration at the Aim-listed tech company for a number of years. At a previous investor meeting held online on 24th November 2021 Paul McGlone stated (in answer to the question: ‘Are there any plans to move to a US market?’): “It is in our plan, it’s only sensible that we talk about it. I do imagine that we will end up there but I want to see some additional momentum before we flick the switch on that particular transaction.”

With Seeing Machines coming to dominate interior monitoring with its class-leading DMS/OMS system, it appears that time is drawing close. Indeed, some argue that such a listing would be guaranteed to increase its US profile and enable it to secure more backing from US tech funds.

Stifel served as joint bookrunner on an $85 million dual-listing Nasdaq IPO for Renalytix AI back in July 2020. The price tripled shortly thereafter but has since come right back down. More successful was GW Pharma’s dual listing back in 2013, before it was eventually acquired.

Mobileye IPO

A more appropriate comparison is the Nasdaq IPO of Mobileye, floated for US$5.3bn in 2014, bought by Intel in 2017 for $15.3bn and now in the running for a potential $50bn spin-off IPO, backed by Morgan Stanley. 

Examining the prospectus for the original Mobileye IPO in 2014, indicates that Seeing Machines is set to be a superior business. Not only is it dominant in auto but also in fleet and aviation. Moreover, its robust technology has applications well beyond the transport sector. 

Expected date of dual listing

While it appears that no firm decision has been made by Seeing Machines regarding a precise date for a dual listing, I believe that the much-mooted plan is moving inexorably forward.

My sources indicate that (barring a market meltdown) it is most likely to happen around Spring 2023, by which time Seeing Machines is expected to have achieved several milestones that will have more US tech funds eager to jump in. These milestones include:

  • An order pipeline of $A1bn in auto;
  • A fleet operation that has proven it can scale, boosted by the third generation of its Guardian product, which will be easily incorporated into telematics products for trucks and buses;
  • The launch of a dedicated aftermarket division to sell its Guardian product to niche manufacturers of buses and trucks, with monitoring services sold to their customers; and
  • A licensing deal in the aviation sector.

I also believe that there is an outside possibility that increased momentum in auto and fleet, with Seeing Machines pretty much set to win every contract it contests, could bring forward the date.

Will QC gatecrash the party?

The question is, will the host of chip companies who want SEE’s IP wait until its value has been boosted by a Nasdaq dual-listing IPO before swooping? Moreover, will Qualcomm’s Christiano Amon risk another chip company, or one of the three Amigos (Amazon, Alphabet and Apple) eating his lunch? It doesn’t seem likely. The Arriver acquisition proved Qualcomm fights for want it wants. 

Given the crucial importance of Seeing Machines vision technology to Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Drive automotive stack it seems logical that he will act quickly, to forestall any rival acquiring this important strategic partner. 

Sector ripe for consolidation

The sector is certainly ripe for M&A deals. Even peripheral DMS players are starting to be bought. In fact, one took place late in 2021, with Lattice Semiconductor acquiring computer vision company Mirametrix. The latter has a rudimentary DMS and, according to unnamed sources, went for a ‘huge multiple’ in a private deal. You can see its offering here: https://ir.latticesemi.com/investor-overview/presentations

Note the slide detailing some of the consumer uses for its technology entitled ‘Consumer Challenges’ — it may ring a (door)bell for some investors. The wide range of markets in which SEE’s technology can be used, aside from its transport applications, is one reason it is an attractive target.

Smart Eye would probably love to be taken over as would Cipia. However, SEE is the demonstrable market leader and will be the one that all the major players covet. 

As ever, if you’ve found any value in this article please consider making a donation to a charity of your choice.

The writer holds shares in Seeing Machines.

SmartEye vs Seeing Machines

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In view of the stellar PR coming out of SmartEye today, I felt it worthwhile to mention that while I applaud its chutzpah, I still don’t think its technology matches that of Seeing Machines. That said, I believe both will progress further and eventually be taken over.

Questions for SmartEye

Let me explain some questions that arose in my mind as I read the announcement from SmartEye today.

  1. SmartEye is saying that it has half a million cars carrying its DMS but, if so, they must be selling it very cheaply given the revenues announced.
  2. Given Seeing Machines has already stated that A$900m of RFQs are being decided right now, it seems odd that SmartEye should contradict this with the statement that “several smaller procurements are soon to be decided in the near term”. Is it possible that this is marketing speak for: “We’ve not won VW or Toyota”?
  3. As if to dispel this notion we’re promised: “Three of the largest procurements of DMS to date are due for sourcing in the coming quarters”. Really? Well, don’t hold your breath if you think SmartEye is going to win them against the combined might of Qualcomm and Seeing Machines.

Of course, I am biased purely because I’ve conducted one helluva lot of research. I believe Qualcomm is set to unveil a host of auto RFQ wins before Christmas, with Seeing Machines DMS/OMS in them. And yes, I’m convinced SEE has won Toyota and VW — I just can’t prove it. Certainly, I don’t hear SmartEye mentioning either company.

Regarding fleet, I believe the global Shell deal is set to be huge. I’ve heard whispers that it could be a caterpillar-style deal, with upfront revenues that will bring forward break-even. Though, with Shell in a quiet period, I can’t confirm.

Moreover, See’s fleet arm is making money, while SmartEye’s nascent fleet offering is still pre-revenue! 

As for aviation, we patiently await the imminent takeoff off of Seeing Machines’ licensing deal with L3. It appears to have been delayed by a year. Regardless, given the progress made, the idea that Seeing Machines aviation arm has no value is plainly ludicrous (not in an Elon Musk way).

Bidders circling Seeing Machines?

By the way, I’m still of the opinion that Seeing Machines is very likely to receive a bid from Qualcomm very, very soon. Indeed, one fund manager recently rang me to ask about a rumour he’d heard coming out of the US, regarding a possible takeover of Seeing Machines. He didn’t mention who it was or his source but, if I was Qualcomm, I’d get the ring on Seeing Machines finger fast.

CES might be the perfect opportunity to announce the betrothal to the world. (I also believe SmartEye will also get bought in due course).

My logic? I just can’t imagine that Qualcomm can risk SEE’s tech falling to anyone else, given its importance to its auto stack offering. Look at how it outmaneuvered Magna to get its hands on Arriver. Certainly, Apple or Alphabet have the potential to outmuscle Qualcomm, as they must also know its potential worth. Therefore, I believe a lot of wooing is going on behind closed doors. 

By the way, has anyone dared tell Elon Musk that buying Seeing Machines might get Missy Cummings off his back?

My advice to Seeing Machines: “Don’t sign any pre-nup until you’ve seen the size of their respective wallets. You’re worth at least £10 billion!”

(Do your own research, as the writer may have been high on life while writing this – Ed).

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines