Category Archives: Technology

Seeing Machines is a strong buy

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Today’s RNS announcing yet another contract for Seeing Machines Gen 3 Guardian aftermarket product is further confirmation that the company is set to hit cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year. 

Although the bus manufacturer wasn’t named directly, the 5-year contract must surely be with Wrightbus with whom Seeing Machines was already supplying its Guardian Gen 3 driver montitoring technology, after achieving homologation in July 2024.

Homologation for Gen 3 Guardian is also taking place with another 4 OEMs, representing 4,000 additional vehicles annually.

This follows a very positive video presentation yesterday from CEO Paul McGlone and CFO Martin Ive, in which they confirmed:

  • Seeing Machines is on track for cashflow breakeven by the end of this calendar year.
  • Approximately 2m cars a quarter will be hitting the road with its DMS from July 2026 (around 33 minutes 40 seconds). 
  • OEMs are collectively telling Seeing Machines that half of the auto RFQs that SEE has worked on are planned to be awarded by December this year, with the other half due in the second half of this financial year. (From around 15 minutes and 10 seconds)
  • Following successful trials, they are in final stage, “commercial negotiations” for the biggest ever Gen 3 contract in the US and another big one in the EU.  (Around 19 minutes).

I personally think the US negotiation is with Amazon and the European one is with Shell, which was surely the company mentioned in today’s RNS: “The company is also progressing towards a European-wide contract in the Oil and Gas sector, with Guardian already deployed in the UK and four other European countries.”

Peter McNally, analyst at house broker Stifel, in a typically perceptive flash note added that the current number of units deployed by this oil & gas major is 200. Therefore, I’m expecting many multiples of this when Shell finally sign the latest Gen 3 contract. Shell places great emphasis on improving safety outcomes and Guardian Gen 3 will deliver that.

I’m shocked that Seeing Machines is still sub 3p but, when the sceptics realise that it’s no longer a jam tomorrow company, rather a jam factory, that price will shoot up. 

Refinancing not an issue

Even the issue of refinancing the Magna loan of approximately $62m should hold no terrors, as Peter McNally pointed out in a note yesterday:

“Seeing Machines’ convertible loan comes due in October 2026 and unless shares go through the conversion price of 9.95p, it will likely have to refinance $61.9m of debt. We think there’s a small chance that Magna could extend the loan, but we don’t rely on that happening. Rather, we think the company will be in a good position to refinance.”

Personally, I expect the issue will disappear as the share price quickly goes north of 10p. Moreover, I do still expect Mitsubishi to make an offer for Seeing Machines before then. 

Mitsubishi partnership

This isn’t mere conjecture. In yesterday’s video presentation Paul McGlone even laid it out before investors; that Mitsubishi is leading discussions as to how Seeing Machines technology can be used in adjacent markets (9m) to benefit Mitsubishi.

“With Mitsubishi working with us in parallel they’ve identified a range of new adjacent markets where they have significant strength around the world, and we are now in the early stages of planning to determine where we can implement our technology to ENHANCE THEIR EXISTING CAPABILITIES (my emphasis). And of this portfolio of  opportunities 
both insurance and smart factory are the ones that we’ve prioritised together and are being led by Mitsubishi.”

To me it’s crystal clear that Mitsubishi needs and wants Seeing Machines. Still, it’s not the only company that is likely to bid for Seeing Machines, as previously stated. Admittedly, the timeline for a bid is probably more likely to be April 2026 than this year – but that’s not so long to wait. Moreover, it makes a higher price more likely. What’s not to like?

How many times does an investor get to buy a stock that is set to go up at least 5-10x in a year? Of course, do your own research – but don’t be too long about it.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Mitsubishi to buy Seeing Machines by Christmas?

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Despite Seeing Machines share price being in the doldrums, I’m optimistic that breakeven (on a monthly basis) later this year will be swiftly followed by a takeover offer from Mitsubishi. If my calculations are correct this could happen as soon as this Christmas.

Although I don’t have definitive proof, I hope even my harshest critic could not fairly accuse me of laying out before you a ‘delusional’ scenario. Indeed, there is an ineluctable logic to Mitsubishi moving to buy Seeing Machines in a friendly takeover by early December.

Why Mitsubishi? 

There are a number of reasons why I believe Mitsubishi is most likely to acquire SEE. Mitsubishi holds 19.9% in Seeing Machines, their engineers are working together developing advanced driver monitoring features, Mitsubishi is helping increase sales of Guardian Gen 3, and Mitsubishi has the resources eventually to use the technology in everything from fork lifts to robots. Indeed, more immediately, the wide range of activities of this Japanese group shows an almost perfect fit with SEE’s 3 divisions; Auto, Aftermarket and even Aviation.

There is also a strong cultural fit, as this Japanese company prefers a consensual approach to a takeover. This fits with the Australian preference for a scheme of arrangement for a friendly takeover of an Australian listed company.

Why this year? 

Firstly,  despite being delayed, breakeven on a monthly basis is forecast to occur before December. Fortunately,  Euro NCAP and GSR2 regulation compel the road transport industry to accelerate the introduction of camera-based driver monitoring, and we’ll see increased license royalties from auto and sales of Guardian Gen 3. 

Seeing Machines should also have significant additional contract wins in Auto and Aftermarket over the coming months, confirming its dominant position as the number one global player in advanced, camera-based driver/occupant monitoring (morphing into interior monitoring) for years to come.

Breakeven with a pipeline of contracts guaranteeing significant profits should trigger buying from fund managers who’ve been patiently sitting on the sidelines. More importantly, it would likely reinforce Mitsubishi’s determination to follow through with its plan. I say ‘plan’ because this is clearly a strategic move that has been on the cards for a while.

Mitsubishi has already conducted extensive due diligence prior to investing in Seeing Machines and, with its near 20% stake, has a slight advantage over other potential buyers. It also makes sense for Mitsubishi to buy Seeing Machines just before it becomes highly profitable, otherwise the acquisition price could quickly spiral upwards.

Interestingly, the personal interests of CEO Paul McGlone and that of investors in Seeing Machines appear closely aligned: a bid would be at a premium to the share price (certainly multiples of its current price of approximately 2.5p) and enable him to secure his 25m performance shares before his current contract expires on June 30, 2026. It’s all detailed in the last annual report on Page 67, for those unfamiliar with the details. Note the target share price (TSP) needed for the CEO to secure the maximum number of his 25m performance shares is 20p.

Given the time it takes to process a scheme of arrangement (normally 3 months) and the fact the Australian Court is closed from mid-December to February, for Seeing Machines to be confident of closing the deal before Paul McGlone’s contract expires, early December 2025 seems the latest date that any potential deal would be announced.

The CFO Martin Ive has also been steadily hoovering up shares. Surely he is confident of a significant price rise when SEE achieves the long-awaited breakeven? Warren Buffett would certainly approve, having advised: ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

Price

What sort of price do I expect Seeing Machines investors to receive if this scenario pans out? I think the best they could hope for would be somewhere above 20p but probably below 40p. It’s unrealistic to expect more unless other bidders suddenly materialise. Still, by agreeing to a price well above 20p Mitsubishi could reduce the odds of that happening. 

I doubt the management of Seeing Machines, never mind the funds holding it, will look kindly upon a price below 20p given the huge rise in auto royalties that are guaranteed, not to mention the contract wins expected across all 3 divisions. Moreover, they’re probably in a position to encourage other bidders to step in were Mitsubishi to try. However, I think Mitsubishi has more honour and sense than to even attempt a low-ball offer.

Battle of the Titans

Regardless of the eventual price agreed by Mitsubishi and Seeing Machines, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of other companies stepping in with hostile bids, which would start the long-awaited ‘Battle of the Titans’. The list of potential rival bidders is long and could include one or more of the following: 

  • Amazon
  • Alphabet
  • Apple
  • Raytheon (parent of Collins Aerospace)
  • Qualcomm
  • AMD
  • Nvidia
  • Mobileye
  • Magna 
  • Valeo
  • Tesla

There might also be left-field entrants or a bid from a private equity player. Alas, the state of the world being what it is, I don’t think  a bid from a Chinese company would stand a chance of being accepted.

Crucially, it would take a big number to hijack what, to me at least, seems to be a very likely deal. Yet, in the above list of rival potential bidders there are some huge hitters.

Of course, I’m not Nostradamus and my assumptions could be completely wrong. Therefore, it’s advisable to do your own research and always invest only what you are prepared to have tied up for a while, never mind lose.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Stellantis confirms DMS across all models for Europe by mid 2026

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Speaking exclusively to this journalist, Stellantis has confirmed that it will be putting driver monitoring into all its European cars by mid-2026. Furthermore, I believe Valeo and Seeing Machines are the suppliers of its latest interior monitoring technology, which is set to go into production this summer.

A spokesperson for Stellantis confirmed to me this week that: “As DMS becomes a regulatory requirement, all new Stellantis vehicles registered in the UK and EU will feature the system by mid-2026. Some models will adopt it earlier if they are classified as “new types” under the EU General Safety Regulation.”

The reason I’m so confident that Seeing Machines is the supplier of the DMS/OMS system in partnership with Valeo as the Tier 1 is because the announcement ties in with other evidence.

Evidence

Firstly, Safestocks previously confirmed that two previous wins for Seeing Machines, in June 2022 and December 2022 were with Stellantis. 

Secondly, we know that Seeing Machines and Valeo are partnered for interior monitoring and Colin Barnden, in a LinkedIn post dated April 7th 2025, confirmed Seeing Machines and Valeo as working with Stellantis. Barnden commented: “QNX Cabin was demonstrated at CES 2025 running on a Qualcomm SoC, possibly the 4th generation cockpit processor, with DMS from Seeing Machines. So we can start to piece together a partnership encompassing Qualcomm/QNX/Seeing Machines, the first example of which appears to have reached production with Stellantis running DMS in the cockpit SoC.

“Qualcomm has previously stated the DMS can run in an accelerator on either the Snapdragon Ride or Snapdragon Cockpit processor, and the decision is left up to the automaker. So, at long last, we appear to have some evidence of the link between Qualcomm and Seeing Machines showing up in a vehicle at start of production. This information may also reinforce the conclusion that the tier-1 for the Stellantis program is Valeo, rather than Magna International.”

Lastly, at the recent Town Hall event, Martin Ive, Seeing Machines’ CFO, stated: “We also have 2 new OEMs going into production over the summer with a different Tier 1 [Ed – as VW is already in production with Magna, it must be Valeo]. They will add significant volume as we go through the calendar year, probably hitting more so with the ramp up in production by the time we come to the December quarter.”

Nothing in life is certain and, in the world of automotive, NDAs make it necessary to put together various pieces of evidence to draw conclusions. However, I’m sufficiently confident that Seeing Machines is the supplier to Stellantis to state it publicly. I hope it is of interest to investors as, to me, it confirms that Seeing Machines is set to dominate interior monitoring in passenger cars at least until 2027. 

Of course, I expect it to do so long after that date but probably under different ownership — I will explain all about that in a subsequent blog post.

Doubters should remember that Martin Ive himself stated at the recent Town Hall event that he expects (after discussion with OEMs and Tier 1s) that Seeing Machines auto volumes in Europe will go up 10x from 160k to 1.6m a quarter by June 2026, 2m overall. 

Of course, investors should do their own research and beware traders seeking to influence their views.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Why Seeing Machines should be included in the ‘Humanoid 100’.

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As Morgan Stanley recently outlined in a broker note, robots represent the physical embodiment of AI, which appears to be why they are in the process of becoming THE hottest sector of tech. Yet, despite producing a brilliant note Morgan Stanley has overlooked one key player in its round-up of the top 100 players; Seeing Machines.

That may well be because, unlike the likes of Mobileye, Alphabet and Meta it has a miniscule market cap and resides in a stockmarket slum called AIM. Regardless, someone soon is going to want to marry this beauty. Let me explain why.

To quote the broker note of 6th February: “The physical embodiment of AI touches a $60tn Total Addressable Market (TAM), global GDP, and the meaning of work.”

In that note Morgan Stanley presented the ‘Humanoid 100’, which it described as “a global mapping of equities across a range of sectors and regions that may have an important role in bringing robots from the lab to your living room”.

It used this graphic to illustrate a rudimentary division of these companies into those developing the brain and body value chains.

I’d argue that Seeing Machines should be included in the portion of the Brain (Vision & Compute Semiconductors), which as it currently stands is overly simplistic. For true robots to be successful they will need to develop an understanding of the cognitive state of humans, perhaps even display traits we’d associate with empathy. 

I think SEE sits in the same niche as Mobileye in that diagram. “These are the companies producing semiconductors that are the core of the robot “brain”, allowing robots to learn from, perceive, and/or interact with their environments. Vision-focused semis lie at the edge and allow robots to visualize their environments,” states the note. However, Seeing Machines does something special: it allows robots to visualise humans


It is Seeing Machines, with its software and hardware, that can literally breathe life into robots. As Victor Frankenstein would have exclaimed: “It will pioneer a new way, explore unknown powers, and unfold to the world the deepest mysteries of creation.”

Mobile robots

Still skeptical? Well, Seeing Machines is displaying that technological capability and is applying it to mobile robots; cars, with its AI-powered driver monitoring.

Its technology uses advanced machine vision technology to precisely measure and analyse head pose, eyelid movements and eye gaze under a full spectrum of demanding in-vehicle lighting conditions. This data is then processed to interpret driver attention state, drowsiness, and impairment levels.

That same technology is also enabling an eco-system that provides highly intelligent vehicle interfaces that employ AI to not just respond to speech commands, but to understand more subtle cues from occupants as indicated by hand gestures and eye movements.

Is it so fanciful to imagine that in the near future the ability to assess reduced cognitive ability and understand more subtle clues could be vital for ‘care’ robots used to look after elderly or vulnerable charges. 

Recognition of its ability in the transport sector has brought partners rushing to sign deals with Seeing Machines – many of whom feature in the ‘Humanoid 100’ list. Yet, its latent qualities in the sphere of robotics remains unrecognised by most. Hence, its current market cap belies the true value within. That cannot last much longer
 Do you hear wedding bells?

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Volkswagen’s small ‘BEV for All’ will feature Seeing Machines technology

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Volkswagen has confirmed that its Volkswagen ID2, set to go on sale in 2026, will feature a camera-based driver monitoring system (DMS) in its rear view mirror. Powered by Seeing Machines technology it is expected to feature both driver and occupant monitoring.

This small battery electric vehicles (BEV), based on the ID2.all concept, which was revealed in 2023, is intended to be a huge seller for the German car company. It is expected to retail for around ÂŁ22k for the entry-level model. 

As a spokesperson for Volkswagen confirmed: “The all-new Volkswagen T-Roc and our up-coming small BEV will be the next vehicles to be equipped with the camera-based DMS from start of production. Since the function (Attention and Drowsiness Assist) will be required by EU law from mid-2026, we are working on equipping all other vehicles with a camera-based DMS.”

Seeing Machines has previously stated that when it comes to cost and packaging complexity, its integrated rear-view mirror (RVM) solution, offered exclusively by the Tier 1 Magna, is best in class.

I’m therefore expecting many other car manufacturers who are late to the DMS/OMS party (but whose cars sell in Europe and are therefore required to meet GSR2 mandatory safety legislation) to choose the rear view mirror solution for their new cars.

Seeing Machines’ cutting-edge DMS/OMS is also available in a two camera-solution, should car manufacturers wish to use that.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Disappointing growth, SEE’s broker downgrades

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Following Seeing Machines’ disappointing first half Trading Update combined with quarterly KPIs, both house broker Stifel and Peel Hunt downgraded their price targets and cut revenue expectations, while increasing their estimates for the losses expected for this year. 

In terms of the KPIs: cars produced with SEE technology grew more slowly than expected, falling 34% to 267K in 2Q25 compared with the previous quarter. In addition, sales of Gen 3 Guardian were only 288, making just 1,779 units sold in the first half of the 2025 financial year.

House broker Stifel’s Analyst Peter McNally cut his Price Target from 11.4p to 9.6p but maintained his ‘Buy’ recommendation. McNally summarised his view as follows:

“Seeing Machines’ H1 performance is indicative of wider auto industry struggles, with broadly flat revenues and ARR, leading to a larger-than-expected adjusted cash EBITDA loss of $17.5-18.0m. 

However, cost initiatives over the past 12 months and further planned in H2’25 should reduce cash operating expenses significantly. We also highlight the recent $32.8m strategic investment from Mitsubishi Electric Mobility, which provides  stability as the company gets closer to reaching cash flow breakeven.

While cars on the road has been healthy with 90% y/y growth, Q2 production was down 34% q/q. Although there is a lack of certainty with regard to when exactly this volatility will reverse, we still expect a strong tailwind from the approaching GSR deadline (July 2026) as it moves closer.

Sales of Aftermarket Guardian 3 units have also faced slight delays, however we expect sales to accelerate in H2 as a result of a full commercial release and benefit from the new referral agreement with Mitsubishi Electric Automotive America, which opens the Guardian 3 up to a 1m+ vehicle fleet market.

We reset revenue estimates to a more conservative level based on market uncertainty, but do expect a reduction in the cost base by FY26E to mitigate much of this in FY26/27E. We moderate our target price to 9.6p (from 11.4p) to reflect these new forecasts.”

Explaining in more detail his changes in forecast and valuation, McNally said: 

“We reduce FY25-27E revenues by $10m, primarily as a result of softer royalties, prudently assuming that production volumes do not pick up in FY25E, with possible upside. While the FY25E adj. EBITDA loss increases by $7.5m to $24.4m, we expect the revenue reduction beyond FY25E to be largely mitigated by cost initiatives and as a result we reduce adj. EBITDA profit by just $2m in FY26/27E. As a result of our forecast changes, our DCF-based target price reduces to 9.6p (11.4p). At current levels the shares trade at 3.6x our FY25E EV/Sales, or 11.8x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Buy.”

In addition, Peel Hunt today downgraded from a ‘Buy’ to ‘Reduce’, slashing its Price Target from 7p to 3p. In its note, analysts wrote: “We cut FY25/26/27E revenue by 17%/19%/10% to reflect weaker automotive demand and the slow start from the Guardian generation 3.”

My view

Naturally, I’m disappointed by the update today. I had expected cars on the road to whizz past 3m, despite volatility in the auto market. I didn’t expect car makers to sacrifice safety in an effort to cut costs, thereby risking reputational damage by producing more dangerous cars for consumers. It is shocking that saving lives from driver fatigue and distraction is deemed a lower priority than making profits. Still, it highlights why regulation (in the form of GSR) and pressure from Euro NCAP are vitally important in forcing car manufacturers to improve car safety.

I don’t hold the management of Seeing Machines responsible for this atrocious attitude from car manufacturers, although it has clearly impacted revenues in the short term – and is likely to continue for two more quarters we’ve been advised.

Still, it shouldn’t be ignored that Seeing Machines continues to have more cars on the road with its technology than any of its rivals and I don’t expect this to change.

That is because I expect Seeing Machines to win a significant share of the RFQs that are currently underway. News of a significant contract win could ease investor concerns and encourage brokers eventually to upgrade estimates.

However, I’m far less forgiving of the time it has taken to ramp up production of Guardian Gen 3, which to be frank was late to launch and has so far sold only in small volumes. It’s no wonder many private investors have sold out. However, given CEO Paul McGlone’s statement in a video interview with Tylah Tully that there are 7 significant trials in progress – one of which I believe is Amazon – I hope that things are now on track for significant sales in the final quarter of this financial year. 

Fortunately, the company currently has a $39.6m cash balance and time to set things right before the end of this financial year.

Personally, I’m prepared to hold as I expect the share price to rebound on contract news before the end of this financial year. However, do your own research.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Mitsubishi’s strategic stake in Seeing Machines

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A few thoughts on the strategic investment in Seeing Machines taken by Mitsubishi Electric Mobility Corporation, part of the huge Mitsubishi conglomerate.

  • It secures the cash for Seeing Machines to hit breakeven regardless of the vagaries of the economy, automotive sector or machinations of any single industry player or partner. 
  • It ensures that when a bid is made for Seeing Machine it will be at a very competitive price. The company cannot possibly go on the cheap. 
  • It provides a local partner in the Japanese market, which should make it much easier to gain a strategic stranglehold in the Japanese automotive sector, while also ensuring further diversification in its Tier 1 relationships.
  • Via Mitusubishi’s network we should see Gen 3 Guardian sales in trucks rocket from here on in. It also produces and sells buses and trucks via the FUSO brand – a collaboration with Daimler Trucks. 
  • It potentially opens up new markets to Seeing Machines technology. Mitsubishi manufacturers road construction, agricultural equipment and even forklifts, which could use Seeing Machines’ driver monitoring technology to reduce accidents caused by driver fatigue.
  • The fact that Mitsubishi was determined to take the maximum percentage of shares it could take without triggering a bid (19.9 per cent) tells me how highly it values this investment. It plans to develop more personalised robots in the future for a rapidly ageing society in Japan and combining Seeing Machines’s human fatigue/cognitive state detection with heartbeat detection would be useful features for a domestic ‘carer’ robot to have. 

Consumer Electronics Show

With the Consumer Electronics Show (Jan 7-9) expected to bring news of further license deals, the list of possible buyers of Seeing Machines grows ever longer. 

Moreover, in calendar 2025 I expect its market leadership to become both undeniable and unassailable in the medium term, as:

  • It surpasses 5m cars on the road with its DMS/OMS technology
  • It becomes profitable on a monthly basis by June.
  • Guardian goes past 100k units.
  • The Aviation product is readied for use. 

VW Tayron on sale now

The Volkswagen Tayron, which includes Seeing Machines DMS in its rear view mirror, is due to go on sale in the UK this week. 

The first UK reviews of the vehicle should take place in the spring, possibly mid-to-late March; there may well be some reviews from overseas drives before that, in late February or early March.

This should rapidly boost the profile of its life-saving technology, not to mention public interest in buying shares in a tangible AI product.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Stifel flash note: SEYE KO’d by Seeing Machines?

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In a flash note published yesterday, Stifel confirmed that Smart Eye’s Q3 results clearly show it is taking at beating at the hands of the global leader Seeing Machines.

Stifel analyst Peter McNally confirmed what well researched investors already know; that the auto industry is in a tough place, particularly for Smart Eye. Regarding Smart Eye, he commented: “Automotive revenue shows a slight dip (-1.5% q/q) to SEK 32.4m and is therefore similar to last quarter, which was flattish also. Part of the reason for being flattish is a transition away from services (NRE) to licences, which grew 100% y/y to an undisclosed amount.”

For those who still think Smart Eye is a contender for the automotive crown, McNally’s killer punch is that: “On a like-for-like basis, Seeing Machines Automotive revenue (excluding Aerospace) in FY24 was well over $60m versus Smart Eye’s $11.4m (Q323- Q224), so it still looks like Seeing Machines is well ahead.”

According to McNally, two more take-aways from the results were, firstly: “Commentary on growth in Automotive licences is positive saying the growth rate should increase in Q4 and ‘even higher growth in 2025.’ Clearly this suggests that they see adoption is increasing, which is good news for the industry, but we still think they are playing catch up at this stage as their revenues are significantly lower.”

Secondly, “Smart Eye is also suggesting that volumes will pick up in Q4 in Aftermarket, which somewhat agrees with Seeing Machines’ expectation of a ramp in volumes in its fiscal H225 (Jan-Jun 2025).”

Having listened to the Smart Eye presentation, I found the reluctance of the company to state the number of cars on the road with its technology a telling indication that it has been bested in autos by Seeing Machines. Smart Eye once used to boast of having 1m cars on the road but, as Seeing Machines approaches 3m by the end of this calendar year, the Swedish company has yet to announce hitting 2m, preferring to use the opaque terms ‘design wins’ and ‘models’.

Of course, do your own research.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Euro NCAP pushes for quality DMS, as provided by Seeing Machines

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Following the publication of the 2026 Euro NCAP safety protocols, Seeing Machines is on the cusp of a significant re-rate as OEMs and Tier 1s race to meet higher performance requirements for driver/occupant monitoring.

The two documents can be viewed here, courtesy of Colin Barnden, Principal Analyst at Semicast Research: 

The significance of these documents appear to have passed many investors by. However, no less a figure than Richard Schram, Technical Director at Euro NCAP, has confirmed to me that from January 1st, 2026 a new passenger car will not achieve a 5 star Euro NCAP safety rating in Europe unless it has a driver/occupant monitoring system that meets the criteria specified in these 2026 protocols.

The implications of this news are huge for any OEM wishing to sell new passenger cars models in Europe. This is because, even though driver monitoring is mandatory in Europe from July 2026, Euro NCAP is effectively “pushing for higher performance than the regulation does”, according to Schram.

This is great news for Seeing Machines as, being the most technically proficient provider of DMS/OMS with a fast to implement rearview mirror system, it offers the most realistic solution for many OEMs in that timeframe whose premium models will certainly require 5 star safety. [Elon Musk are you listening?]

I’m therefore anticipating a raft of extensions to existing contracts as well as new contracts to secure its services via Magna, but also via its other partners over the next 6 months.

I think that in the short term there will be such demand for its technology that its average selling price (ASP) will not drop significantly even as volumes expand. Moreover, that ASP is, I believe, already at a significant premium to its competitors. 

The upshot is that within the next 6 months, as SEE speeds towards 4m cars on the road with its technology, SEYE will be left in the dust, alongside Tobii and Cipia – which must be feeling the pain from the economic collapse of Israel.

Seeing Machines itself has previously stated that it expects to take around 40 per cent of the global passenger car market for DMS by volume, 50 per cent by value. I’ve long held the view that 75 per cent by value is possible and I think this news from Euro NCAP confirms that there was a sound reason for my holding onto this stock, despite experiencing a roller-coaster ride.

As OEMs, Tier 1s and fund managers realise the implications of this news I expect increased buying of SEE stock as it brushes off misplaced investor concerns. This should push the price up significantly. 

Call me paranoid but over the next 6-8 months I believe private investors should beware market makers shaking the tree in order to acquire their shares cheaply for institutional buyers.

Of course, do your own research as this is only my opinion. Maybe my prediction of a 75 per cent market share of the global DMS market 8 years ago was a fluke.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Seeing Machines drives towards cashflow breakeven 

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Despite well publicised woes in the auto industry, Seeing Machines penetration of the auto market continues apace with the latest quarterly KPIs showing that it is on track to pass 3m cars on the road for this calendar year, as predicted by Safestocks back in May. 

The Q1 FY2025 auto figures showed quarterly production of 405,669 units, taking the number of cars on the road with Seeing Machines’ technology to 2,617,091.

That represents 100 per cent growth year-on-year, which sets it apart from all its rivals – none of which has even hit 2m cars on the road.

In a note published today by house analyst Stifel, analyst Peter McNally wrote: “Reassuringly, the company’s 8th Automotive production programme has commenced, which adds another since the 7th was announced at the Q424 KPIs in August (6th at the end of FY23). Although Automotive industry volumes are light, more of the company’s OEM customers are launching, meaning adoption/ royalties should continue to rise further. We think two more are likely in 2025 and additional programmes are launching within individual OEMs providing a compound effect.”

He added: “We think it can probably add another 1.9m cars on the road in FY25E (vs 1.1m in FY24) with only mild decreases in average selling price.”

In a separate interview with Proactive Investors today, Seeing Machines CEO Paul McGlone confirmed that 2 more auto programmes are due to be launched this financial year.

Guardian

McGlone also explained that Guardian Gen 3 sales would be ramping up in the second half. Given that average recurring revenue for Aftermaket driver monitoring (excluding any effect from Caterpillar) rose 13 per cent over Q1 2024, the improved gross margin from Gen 3 hardware sales should underpin an even better performance over the remainder of this financial year.

Indeed, in that same interview CFO Martin Ive again confirmed that the company is determined to hit cashflow breakeven on a monthly basis by the end of this financial year. 

Undervalued

Certainly, the company’s share price has recently been hit by concerns over cash, however McNally’s view on this is: “
we believe 3rd party development costs will reduce in addition to headcount, and cash should benefit from growth in higher margin OEM Royalties (c.100% GM) and a Guardian Gen 3 ramp in H225. We think the company has a portfolio of non-dilutive additional cash options if needed, as history suggests.”

McNally adds: “Following the recent share price decline, the shares trade at 3.1x EV/Sales, which we think is attractive for a market leader in a large industry with a 3-year forecast revenue CAGR of 23% or 42% for gross profit through FY27E. Buy.” 

Personally, I’m expecting further auto OEMs wins, license deals and a ramp in Gen 3 Guardian sales in the second half to raise the share price significantly as this financial year progresses. Furthermore, many funds are watching this stock from the sidelines and profitability is the key catalyst that I believe will see them buy in.

In my experience, nervous private investors tend to move out of a stock just when they should be buying more or at the very least holding. Mr Market hasn’t done years of research in this stock and is driven by fear and greed. Of course, do your own research.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines