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Mobileye IPO is positive for Seeing Machines

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News that Intel plans to float Mobileye for around US$50bn in 2022 is very positive for Seeing Machines in a number of ways.

Intel a possible bidder for Seeing Machines?

Firstly, it would provide Intel with funds to take over Seeing Machines, which is the leading global player in the driver monitoring/occupant monitoring space. Intel would gain additional revenue lines in aviation and other transport verticals. It would also stymie Qualcomm’s strategy of dominating interior sensing within auto. 

Even if the acquisition turned out a mixed success for Intel, it could do what is plans to do with Mobileye; IPO it a few years later for multiples of that value. Remember Intel paid $15bn for Mobileye and that acquisition has arguably turned out to be a very mixed blessing.

Presssure on Qualcomm to bid increases

A further positive for Seeing Machines is that the timing of Intel’s move increases the pressure on Qualcomm to make a bid for Seeing Machines, while the former’s hegemony in DMS/OMS is still rumour not fact. By June 2022 multiple wins in auto DMS/OMS will be known to all market participants and Seeing Machines market value will have risen significantly. 

By acting soon, on its knowledge of guaranteed wins by Seeing Machines that have not yet been officially signed, Qualcomm could save itself billions and avoid a strategic denouement at the hands of Intel. 

Yes, Qualcomm would have to come up with at least US$5bn but that is a relative bargain, given that Seeing Machines profits from fleet, auto and aviation would earn that back by 2030.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Seeing Machines throws down the gauntlet

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Last week Seeing Machines threw down the gauntlet to would-be competitors and those hoping to acquire it on the cheap. Broker Cenkos responded by raising its price target to 19.5p.

At its full-year results presentation on Wednesday, it reaffirmed solid progress over the past year. This followed news earlier that week of a US$41m ‘strategic’ fundraise. The money raised will finance costly R&D efforts as it seeks to capture 75% plus of the global driver monitoring market, increase it share of the trucking market and expand further into aviation.

In a pretty frank presentation CEO Paul McGlone made it pretty clear that Seeing Machines intends to grab a dominant market share in auto over the next 6 months before any move to seek a dual Nasdaq listing. My reading is that Qualcomm now needs to open its wallet wider than it has ever done to acquire Seeing Machines.

Risk of cheap bid is over

Let me say that again. The risk of a cheap bid is over. US funds coming in at 11p aren’t doing so to make a measly 5x their money. In my estimation, as the market wises up to Seeing Machines taking over 75 percent of the global DMS market, anything below £1 a share is not going to secure Seeing Machines.

As proof of that is the news that Mirametrix, which uses AI for computer vision applications, was reportedly sold for a huge multiple. Seeing Machines is, in my opinion, worth far more.

The recent A$140m contract with Tier 1 Magna (which also invested ÂŁ10m in Seeing Machines) should serve as a wake-up call to investors and rivals alike. There will be plenty more wins over the next few months.

My central thesis; that SEE win Toyota, Honda, VW (including Audi), Volvo, Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis and Tesla in addition to BMW, Mercedes, Ford, GM, Byton and Fisker remains very much intact. Why? Because as far as driver/occupant monitoring goes, Seeing Machines is pretty much the only game in town.

Sadly for investors, these contracts take time to officially sign and partners are, for a variety of reasons, not keen to provide too many details. Yet, growing auto revenues from license fees tell its own story. They are projected to keep on growing as the company wins more and more business. By the end of this financial year, we’ve been promised much greater clarity on an auto pipeline that I expect will be worth a billion Australian dollars.

In the meantime, with Covid concerns growing alongside the realisation that the global economy isn’t recovering as it should, there will be ups and downs in the share price. Still, the direction of the business is clear: it is taking over global DMS.

Of course, I fully expect Seeing Machines to continue to downplay the potential size of contract wins, even as it announces them. For as Cenkos analyst John-Marc Bunce confirmed in his note of 24th November: “Seeing Machines has been underplaying the value of its RFQ wins and relationships to increase its chance of winning more business.”

Even so, after the penny drops in automotive, I expect a bidding war will materialise — though Qualcomm is currently the hot favourite to win it.

Show me the money Qualcomm!

I don’t know when Qualcomm will bid for Seeing Machines but I doubt it will wait until the success of Seeing Machines is public knowledge. At the moment it has a slight edge, not to mention a huge wallet, but the fact that Magna is making subtle overtures must be unsettling. 

Maybe I’ve had a little too much port, but the present scenario is reminiscent of a scene from the film Jerry Maguire, with Qualcomm’s Christiano Amon required to scream: “Show me the money!” As Paul McGlone dances. If Qualcomm fails to do that, I know a few other companies that will. 

Meanwhile, in the absence of any ‘reasonable bid’ investors will have to be patient. For newbies that is a lot easier to do than for long-term investors but progress has clearly been demonstrated. Fleet is growing at approximately 40% a year,  SEE is winning auto business and its penetration into aviation is growing.

Admittedly, the fine detail on many issues is still scant, and there are always execution risks, but what isn’t in doubt is that Seeing Machines technology is going to dominate this market over the next few years. There was enough in the presentation to give valuable insights into its business but insufficient detail for those seeking easy ways to value the company in the very short term. 

While Cenkos has immediately raised its price target to 19.5p, Stifel has yet to issue a note. Is it saving a note for some big news prior to Christmas? 

Costly R&D

Unfortunately, continued costly R&D is unavoidable as Seeing Machines is being pushed to deliver up to 40 additional features alongside its core technology (everything from being able to tell if a driver is using their phone to identifying the ID of the driver) to win the A$1.1 billon in contracts currently up for grabs. Fortunately, Paul McGlone has said that the company will attempt to license such technology where possible and eschew rash and costly takeovers. Thankfully, no competitor is anywhere close to being able to deliver a comparable system to the timescales required by auto manufacturers — timescales driven by legislation in Europe and the US. 

In addition, SEE should be able to charge increased rates for some of these features. Cenkos estimates an average selling price (ASP) of US$14 a car recently, an increase on its previous estimates, and it is hoped this trend may continue given SEE’s domination of the market. Like Qualcomm, but on a smaller scale, it is selling a highly complex system not a single product to a market desperate for its cutting-edge, DMS technology.

Despite serious pressure to cut costs in automotive, there appears to be no other DMS company that can really deliver to the specs demanded by car manufacturers in the short time frames and price points at which they want it. Thus, I expect Seeing Machines to be well on it way to winning 75% plus of the global DMS market by 2025, increasing profit margins as it does so.

Similarly, it is working on the 3rd generation of its Guardian aftermarket product for trucks – while at the same time starting to go into trucks at the manufacturing stage. We await a contract announcement regarding that in due course.

Investors are still waiting for a Caterpillar-style license deal for aviation with L3Harris. While we wait for it to materialise, there appears plenty of upside from the current share price of around 10p-11p. With significant news expected at CES in early January, only a market crash is likely to prevent the current share price from rising substantially over the next few months.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Is Tesla going to use Seeing Machines?

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Evidence appears to be mounting that Elon Musk may attempt to get the National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) off his back by upgrading Tesla’s driver monitoring systems (DMS) with Seeing Machines state-of-the-art, camera based driver/occupant monitoring.

At its Investor Day earlier this week, Qualcomm CEO Christiano Amon made repeated references to its progress in selling a system rather than individual components to auto OEMs, in the form of its ‘Snapdragon digital chassis’. This includes its telematics, digital cockpit, Car-to-Cloud services, ADAS and autonomy solutions.

Tesla a customer

Amon cited Tesla (1hour, 5 mins) as the model for legacy OEMs who, with Qualcomm’s help, can also become technology companies. The legacy OEMs clearly want Tesla-like valuations, Qualcomm wants to sell 10 times more chips — and even Tesla apparently needs Qualcomm expertise. 

Indeed, Tesla also featured in a background graphic of 36 car marques (25 global OEMs) that apparently use Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Cockpit platform.

Global automotive customers of Qualcomm

Details were sketchy but Seeing Machines is partnered with Qualcomm and supplies its driver monitoring system as part of the overall system. 

There is no certainty that Tesla will incorporate the entire Qualcomm system but it would make sense for it to, at the very least, include the driver monitoring aspect featuring Seeing Machines technology.

Qualcomm growth in automotive

Certainly, Qualcomm’s strategy of diversifying into automotive is gathering pace and it now has an order book of US$13bn in automotive.

Qualcomm’s annual automotive revenue rose by half to nearly US$1 billion in the fiscal 2021 year that ended on 26 September. Qualcomm CFO Akash Palkhiwala, forecast last Tuesday that this would grow to approximately $3.5 billion by fiscal 2026, thanks to numerous deals already signed. In 10 years time, Qualcomm expects that number to grow to $8 billion.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is an agency of the U.S. federal government, part of the Department of Transportation. It describes its mission as “Save lives, prevent injuries, reduce vehicle-related crashes” related to transportation safety in the United States

With the NHTSA investigating accidents involving Telsa vehicles, alongside increasing concerns that Tesla’s marketing its semi-autonomous autos as being capable of ‘Full Self Driving’ technology is misleading consumers, Tesla does need a fix. Incorporating Seeing Machines DMS would help prevent accidents due to driver fatigue or distraction and possibly prevent intervention by US regulators that could damage Tesla’s share price.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk is a complex character with faults and foibles like most humans. He is also a visionary, arguably more significant than even Nikolas Tesla. Just listen to Musk opining on the importance of interplanetary travel for the survival of the human species (back in 2016) if you doubt that. I’m sure Musk can see the sense in using Seeing Machines DMS technology.

However, I may be wrong – or a little ahead of my time – and you should always do your own research. When it comes to investing, being too early is often the same as being wrong. Until you are proven right.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Roy Holehouse needs your help

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One of the best-known and highly-regarded private investors in Seeing Machines has fallen gravely ill and is currently in intensive care. He isn’t expected to survive and, while your prayers can help, his family could also do with financial assistance at this time of crisis.

A friend of the family has created a gofundme page and many holders of Seeing Machines and even members of the company have donated.

If you too can spare some cash, no matter how little, feel free to donate. It’s certainly in a good cause.

Here’s the link to the page: https://www.gofundme.com/f/f3u5cw-a-helping-hand?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet

Thanks.

More detail on Seeing Machines deal with Shell

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I was rather disappointed by the lack of detail in the RNS announcing the Global Framework Agreement between Shell and Seeing Machines. In response to my questions below, Shell has provided more information but confirmed that it won’t disclose the financial details of the agreement.

1)What exactly is a Global Framework Agreement in this context? Does it for instance mean that the fine detail is still to be negotiated? The intent of the Global Framework is to settle the main terms and conditions for the contract, including commercial pricing information. We are able to negotiate these terms with Seeing Machines once, which then allows any Shell entity around the world to call off that agreement.

2) Is it possible to quantify the approximate minimum annual value of the contract? This will depend on the uptake of the Global Framework by local assets, which at this time is not defined.

3) What is the length of the contract? For example, is it a 3 or 5-year contract? The Global Framework is a 5-year contract, but local assets can sign ‘call offs’ against this Global Framework that could extend past 5 years.

4) Why did you choose Seeing Machines? If you underwent competitive trials how long did they last? As a global organisation, with responsibility for the safety of employees, contractors and the general public, we have an obligation to implement evidence-based risk management strategies to manage the hazard of fatigued and drowsy driving. We tested multiple driver monitoring technologies. We recognise Seeing MachinesŽ Guardian System to be very promising in its ability to detect drowsiness and fatigue, and alert the driver. It took just over a year to set up, conduct and assess the results of the test.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

SmartEye vs Seeing Machines

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In view of the stellar PR coming out of SmartEye today, I felt it worthwhile to mention that while I applaud its chutzpah, I still don’t think its technology matches that of Seeing Machines. That said, I believe both will progress further and eventually be taken over.

Questions for SmartEye

Let me explain some questions that arose in my mind as I read the announcement from SmartEye today.

  1. SmartEye is saying that it has half a million cars carrying its DMS but, if so, they must be selling it very cheaply given the revenues announced.
  2. Given Seeing Machines has already stated that A$900m of RFQs are being decided right now, it seems odd that SmartEye should contradict this with the statement that “several smaller procurements are soon to be decided in the near term”. Is it possible that this is marketing speak for: “We’ve not won VW or Toyota”?
  3. As if to dispel this notion we’re promised: “Three of the largest procurements of DMS to date are due for sourcing in the coming quarters”. Really? Well, don’t hold your breath if you think SmartEye is going to win them against the combined might of Qualcomm and Seeing Machines.

Of course, I am biased purely because I’ve conducted one helluva lot of research. I believe Qualcomm is set to unveil a host of auto RFQ wins before Christmas, with Seeing Machines DMS/OMS in them. And yes, I’m convinced SEE has won Toyota and VW — I just can’t prove it. Certainly, I don’t hear SmartEye mentioning either company.

Regarding fleet, I believe the global Shell deal is set to be huge. I’ve heard whispers that it could be a caterpillar-style deal, with upfront revenues that will bring forward break-even. Though, with Shell in a quiet period, I can’t confirm.

Moreover, See’s fleet arm is making money, while SmartEye’s nascent fleet offering is still pre-revenue! 

As for aviation, we patiently await the imminent takeoff off of Seeing Machines’ licensing deal with L3. It appears to have been delayed by a year. Regardless, given the progress made, the idea that Seeing Machines aviation arm has no value is plainly ludicrous (not in an Elon Musk way).

Bidders circling Seeing Machines?

By the way, I’m still of the opinion that Seeing Machines is very likely to receive a bid from Qualcomm very, very soon. Indeed, one fund manager recently rang me to ask about a rumour he’d heard coming out of the US, regarding a possible takeover of Seeing Machines. He didn’t mention who it was or his source but, if I was Qualcomm, I’d get the ring on Seeing Machines finger fast.

CES might be the perfect opportunity to announce the betrothal to the world. (I also believe SmartEye will also get bought in due course).

My logic? I just can’t imagine that Qualcomm can risk SEE’s tech falling to anyone else, given its importance to its auto stack offering. Look at how it outmaneuvered Magna to get its hands on Arriver. Certainly, Apple or Alphabet have the potential to outmuscle Qualcomm, as they must also know its potential worth. Therefore, I believe a lot of wooing is going on behind closed doors. 

By the way, has anyone dared tell Elon Musk that buying Seeing Machines might get Missy Cummings off his back?

My advice to Seeing Machines: “Don’t sign any pre-nup until you’ve seen the size of their respective wallets. You’re worth at least £10 billion!”

(Do your own research, as the writer may have been high on life while writing this – Ed).

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines

Is Seeing Machines set to be taken over within 6 months?

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Following today’s interview with Seeing Machines CEO Paul McGlone, I’m convinced that Seeing Machines is set to soon follow Veoneer and be the subject of a bidding war, most likely within the next 6 months.

The main driver is its dominance in the automotive driver monitoring space, where it is set to win the lions share of a multi-billion dollar market over the next year. (My view is it wins at least 70% of the RFQs).

McGlone was very candid in the interview and the key part I’m going to refer to starts from around 13 minutes in. There he outlined the problem winning most of the DMS/OMS market brings to a relative minnow:

“In my opinion, this is the beginning of the consolidation in interior sensing. Not the end, the beginning. I doubt very much whether there will be 3 or 4 majors in this space 2 years from now.”

“One of the challenges we have right now is that with almost a billion dollars of RFQs, which is more than we’ve seen in our entire life, on our table today, and we expect another billion next year, we have a really important decision to make. Do we pursue it all, do we get selective and strategic about what we pursue? What are the investment implications for either choice?

It is very, very clear: if we pursue it all and we win at our historical run rate of 40 plus per cent it is a fantastic return on investment. So, over the next 2 quarters we’ll be looking in great detail around the volume of RFQs, the requirements in each of them
the cost of doing them and the return on investment. That is the big decision for us to make. We don’t have to make it now but we’ll be working on it over the next 2 quarters.”

I personally think the opportunity is so huge that even if Seeing Machines wanted to pursue the opportunity offered by automotive alone, it won’t be allowed to do so. However, I think they’ve already decided to sell if the price is right.

By the way, I think that price will be over £1. Looks silly when the price is 10p but huge contract wins haven’t yet been announced. When they are the price will rise and £1 will eventually look cheap.

Qualcomm grabbed Veoneer from the hands of Magna because it sees the strategic importance of active safety in automotive to its future business.

Seeing Machines is of even more importance as its technology is the jewel in the crown of active safety (an area that has grown in importance as the automotive industry comes to realise that mass adoption of fully autonomous vehicles is decades away). While car computer systems will increasingly carry out more tasks for drivers they’ll still need to ensure drivers are paying sufficient attention to take over when required.

Moreover, Seeing Machines technology, which at its height goes far beyond mere eye-tracking and helps computers to assess the cognitive load of a human (including whether they are incapacitated or not), has many uses that go far beyond passenger automotive. This includes trucking and uses in aviation (training simulators, ground control tracking and planes). Shipping and flying cars will surely follow and spacecraft would logically use it eventually.

Yet, its tech has uses far beyond transport: in XR headsets, mobiles, medical devices and robots. In all these markets Seeing Machines technology has the potential to deliver multi-billion dollar revenues to its owner.

That’s why, although I expect it to be valued partly on a forward order book in automotive, its dominance in the trucking and nascent aviation markets will also increase its intrinsic worth.

Crucially, it should also obtain a healthy premium for its strategic importance in developing future markets.

That’s why, although Qualcomm must be red hot favourites to take it over, there is the likelihood that another chip company (eager to spoil the party) or even a private equity firm (awash with dry powder and seeking to acquire valuable assets) will make a bid.

I also think a bid from Apple or even Alphabet is a strong possibility. Each will know its strategic importance to their future plans and be prepared to outbid Qualcomm for it. For example, after the money spent on Waymo for little real return it might make sense for Alphabet to hedge its bets and spend a few billion dollars to acquire a guaranteed golden goose like Seeing Machines. Equally, why should the forthcoming Apple Car not use its own DMS (from Seeing Machines) and use that technology in its own computer chips to power its headsets, mobiles and computers?

Of course, I could be completely wrong. After all, I once thought driver monitoring would be one of the hottest areas in automotive and look how that worked out.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Expect massive re-rate of Seeing Machines by year end

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Seeing Machines put out a positive year-end trading update today, without actually providing news of auto contract wins.

Fortunately, they are set to pile up over the next 6 months, with the company admitting it is bidding for a A$900m pipeline from numerous car manufacturers with 16 Tier 1s.

My view is that Seeing Machines, which has been working with the likes of Toyota and VW for years is set to take at least 75% of that pipeline. Indeed, one source (from outside the company) has already told me that A$750m is the figure I should have in mind, which would equate to over 80%. Another source (again outside the company) has recently validated my long-term bullish view on the company’s prospects in auto.

Of course, that pipeline will also grow as OEMs scale up initial contracts further. Indeed, the fact that Seeing Machines tech is now so much in demand must be the reason so many Tier 1s are now scrambling to work with it. They, unlike most investors, have seen the writing on the wall and its reads: ‘Seeing Machines DMS rules ok!’

That of course brings in the whole question of who is going to bid for the company and when?

With a A$1bn+ order book in auto set to become a reality in the present financial year, I’m sure informal approaches are becoming more regular. 

But Seeing Machines is traditional and I have a feeling any match will be an arranged one. One that will need the approval of the whole family of shareholders.

However, Seeing Machines needn’t be in any rush as its value should be considered in pounds not pence. I’ve earmarked the end of calendar year 2022 as the most likely date by which we’ll have some M&A action. By then it will be clear that:

  1. I’m not making this stuff up.
  2. Aviation is another cash cow
  3. VR headsets/mobile phones is a likely growth area for its tech. For instance, its technology seems perfect for the next iteration of the Microsoft Hololens, which only has rudimentary eye-tracking.

The exact timing of any offer depends, of course, on contract announcements and broker upgrades as companies generally prefer de-risked investments. Still, by the end of this year I expect Seeing Machines’ auto division to be almost totally de-risked.

At this point, I want to put in a plea for Seeing Machines to engage Morgan Stanley as a broker and to ensure Adam Jonas is the analyst covering it. It is a plea I’ve made directly to the company in the past and now is certainly the time to consider it seriously. 

SEE is a global leader in one of the hottest areas in tech. Waymo brags about full autonomy but in scale that is decades away. Long before then Seeing Machines tech is going to be in hundreds of millions of cars.

It therefore needs huge coverage in the US, where they naturally think big and fully value a successful global tech company. Who better than Adam Jonas to serve SEE up to the investment world?

Price

Speculating on price is a mug’s game. But then I’ve been labelled a mug multiple times for holding SEE for so many years. So here goes:

Personally, I think ÂŁ1 is achievable in the next 12 months, provided:

  • VW/Toyota contracts are announced before the end of 2021
  • Someone admits we’re in Honda, courtesy of GM
  • Qualcomm reveal more about our wins together in auto
  • Volvo win is announced (Okay, I just put that in because I crave validation)
  • We get at least one firm aviation licence deal
  • We get Morgan Stanley (more importantly, Adam Jonas) on board

It could be a lot more by this time next year, if:

We get confirmation that our tech is being factory fitted to trucks

We get confirmation that Microsoft is putting our tech into the HoloLens headset

We get confirmation that Apple/Tesla is using us

An aviation license deal provides significant up front payments

If a bidding war were then to kick off, well it could even stretch to an Ayrton Senna. However, I’m sure a certain chip manufacturer or some Private Equity firm laden with dry powder won’t want a bidding war.

Soon, the institutional holders will have to decide: do they want a pound in the hand or a tenner in the bush?

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

Battle of the Titans draws ever closer

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I’m glad to finally get confirmation from Seeing Machines that the Mercedes S Class contains its driver monitoring system. Especially, as this website was the first to reveal this 4 years ago. The additional models announced today are all good news too.

Okay, we all know about NDAs and lead times in the auto industry by now but, as the deadline for mandatory DMS in Europe nears, SEE is clearly benefitting from a rush for its tech from OEMs.

The good news is that there is a growing pipeline of auto wins that I expect over the next 6 months,  My firm view is that Seeing Machines will (eventually) be in a position to announce wins with VW (and Audi), Toyota, Honda, Subaru, Volvo etc. etc.

Seeing Machines has effectively crushed the opposition and with the help of Qualcomm and Xilinx is scaling up its auto operations beyond the expectations of many.

It’s also making huge strides in getting its technology into the real world via Fleet and Aviation. More on that in due course.

My view is that overall it’s heading for A$1bn+ turnover by 2025. Of course, until the news is ‘official’ and house brokers have put the numbers out, there will be justifiable scepticism. Still, the exact number is less important than the massive revenue and profit acceleration path it is forging. That is now becoming increasingly clear to a host of sweet-toothed companies that would love to acquire a de-risked jam factory.

That is why I expect there to be a massive battle to acquire SEE well before 2025. By late 2022, early 2023, I reckon.

The leading runners and riders will doubtless include some or all of the following:

Expect at least one left field bidder, who could even start the auction off with an opportunistic bid.

As to the price? Well, my minimum is ÂŁ1 a share. My maximum is ÂŁ4 by 2023.

A warning: I could be completely wrong. After all, maybe it really was blind luck that I guessed about the Mercedes S Class back in 2017. Moreover, circumstances and stock markets can change quite rapidly, defying conclusions based on fairly accurate analysis.

If you’re in two minds about this you have to ask yourself one question: “Do you feel lucky?”

“Well do you punk?”  (2m 11sec)

In any case, do your own research before investing.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

 

 

 

 

 

Teasing RNS from Seeing Machines

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Yesterday’s RNS from Seeing Machines had some of us hoping that it was alluding to   collaborations with Toyota, Honda and Subaru, when it said: “Seeing Machines is currently working with all major US automotive manufacturers to deliver its industry-leading technology”.

Somebody at Seeing Machines clearly has a wicked sense of humour and I dedicate this track Tease Me to them.

Well, the company has confirmed that what it meant was “traditional US-parented OEMs” not major manufacturers in the US (which would include Toyota, Honda and Subaru).

I’m not disheartened in the slightest as I believe it is working with major Japanese automotive manufacturers and will be in future models from Toyota, Honda and Subaru.

That would be a good RNS to put out. Take your time Seeing Machines as we don’t want to do anything that might double the share price overnight.

Time will reveal if I’m Nostradamus or more of a cut-price Mystic Meg.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.