In view of the stellar PR coming out of SmartEye today, I felt it worthwhile to mention that while I applaud its chutzpah, I still donât think its technology matches that of Seeing Machines. That said, I believe both will progress further and eventually be taken over.
Questions for SmartEye
Let me explain some questions that arose in my mind as I read the announcement from SmartEye today.
- SmartEye is saying that it has half a million cars carrying its DMS but, if so, they must be selling it very cheaply given the revenues announced.
- Given Seeing Machines has already stated that A$900m of RFQs are being decided right now, it seems odd that SmartEye should contradict this with the statement that âseveral smaller procurements are soon to be decided in the near termâ. Is it possible that this is marketing speak for: âWeâve not won VW or Toyotaâ?
- As if to dispel this notion weâre promised: âThree of the largest procurements of DMS to date are due for sourcing in the coming quartersâ. Really? Well, donât hold your breath if you think SmartEye is going to win them against the combined might of Qualcomm and Seeing Machines.
Of course, I am biased purely because Iâve conducted one helluva lot of research. I believe Qualcomm is set to unveil a host of auto RFQ wins before Christmas, with Seeing Machines DMS/OMS in them. And yes, Iâm convinced SEE has won Toyota and VW â I just canât prove it. Certainly, I don’t hear SmartEye mentioning either company.
Regarding fleet, I believe the global Shell deal is set to be huge. Iâve heard whispers that it could be a caterpillar-style deal, with upfront revenues that will bring forward break-even. Though, with Shell in a quiet period, I canât confirm.
Moreover, Seeâs fleet arm is making money, while SmartEyeâs nascent fleet offering is still pre-revenue!Â
As for aviation, we patiently await the imminent takeoff off of Seeing Machines’Â licensing deal with L3. It appears to have been delayed by a year. Regardless, given the progress made, the idea that Seeing Machines aviation arm has no value is plainly ludicrous (not in an Elon Musk way).
Bidders circling Seeing Machines?
By the way, Iâm still of the opinion that Seeing Machines is very likely to receive a bid from Qualcomm very, very soon. Indeed, one fund manager recently rang me to ask about a rumour heâd heard coming out of the US, regarding a possible takeover of Seeing Machines. He didnât mention who it was or his source but, if I was Qualcomm, Iâd get the ring on Seeing Machines finger fast.
CES might be the perfect opportunity to announce the betrothal to the world. (I also believe SmartEye will also get bought in due course).
My logic? I just canât imagine that Qualcomm can risk SEEâs tech falling to anyone else, given its importance to its auto stack offering. Look at how it outmaneuvered Magna to get its hands on Arriver. Certainly, Apple or Alphabet have the potential to outmuscle Qualcomm, as they must also know its potential worth. Therefore, I believe a lot of wooing is going on behind closed doors.Â
By the way, has anyone dared tell Elon Musk that buying Seeing Machines might get Missy Cummings off his back?
My advice to Seeing Machines: âDonât sign any pre-nup until youâve seen the size of their respective wallets. Youâre worth at least ÂŁ10 billion!â
(Do your own research, as the writer may have been high on life while writing this – Ed).
The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines