Following the publication of the 2026 Euro NCAP safety protocols, Seeing Machines is on the cusp of a significant re-rate as OEMs and Tier 1s race to meet higher performance requirements for driver/occupant monitoring.
The two documents can be viewed here, courtesy of Colin Barnden, Principal Analyst at Semicast Research:
The significance of these documents appear to have passed many investors by. However, no less a figure than Richard Schram, Technical Director at Euro NCAP, has confirmed to me that from January 1st, 2026 a new passenger car will not achieve a 5 star Euro NCAP safety rating in Europe unless it has a driver/occupant monitoring system that meets the criteria specified in these 2026 protocols.
The implications of this news are huge for any OEM wishing to sell new passenger cars models in Europe. This is because, even though driver monitoring is mandatory in Europe from July 2026, Euro NCAP is effectively “pushing for higher performance than the regulation does”, according to Schram.
This is great news for Seeing Machines as, being the most technically proficient provider of DMS/OMS with a fast to implement rearview mirror system, it offers the most realistic solution for many OEMs in that timeframe whose premium models will certainly require 5 star safety. [Elon Musk are you listening?]
I’m therefore anticipating a raft of extensions to existing contracts as well as new contracts to secure its services via Magna, but also via its other partners over the next 6 months.
I think that in the short term there will be such demand for its technology that its average selling price (ASP) will not drop significantly even as volumes expand. Moreover, that ASP is, I believe, already at a significant premium to its competitors.
The upshot is that within the next 6 months, as SEE speeds towards 4m cars on the road with its technology, SEYE will be left in the dust, alongside Tobii and Cipia – which must be feeling the pain from the economic collapse of Israel.
Seeing Machines itself has previously stated that it expects to take around 40 per cent of the global passenger car market for DMS by volume, 50 per cent by value. I’ve long held the view that 75 per cent by value is possible and I think this news from Euro NCAP confirms that there was a sound reason for my holding onto this stock, despite experiencing a roller-coaster ride.
As OEMs, Tier 1s and fund managers realise the implications of this news I expect increased buying of SEE stock as it brushes off misplaced investor concerns. This should push the price up significantly.
Call me paranoid but over the next 6-8 months I believe private investors should beware market makers shaking the tree in order to acquire their shares cheaply for institutional buyers.
Of course, do your own research as this is only my opinion. Maybe my prediction of a 75 per cent market share of the global DMS market 8 years ago was a fluke.
The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.