Seeing Machines’ refinancing is getting close to the point where investors should finally find out who is prepared to put money behind the company.

The US$47.5m convertible loan note, held by Magna, matures on October 4. In July, Seeing Machines said it had received multiple term sheets from potential lenders. Then, in August, came a more significant update: the company said it had agreed indicative terms and entered an exclusive negotiation period with a potential lender.

So who is behind the deal?

One possibility that I keep coming back to is Mitsubishi.

Mitsubishi Electric Mobility is Seeing Machines’ largest shareholder, with a 19.9 per cent stake. It invested £26.2m in the company in December 2024, helping strengthen Seeing Machines’ balance sheet while establishing a much closer strategic relationship between the two businesses.

The relationship goes considerably further than simply owning shares. Seeing Machines has an automotive production programme with Mitsubishi in Japan, while the two companies have been pursuing opportunities together in automotive and aftermarket markets.

The relationship may also be about more than cars. Seeing Machines and Mitsubishi are working together in robotics and Physical AI, potentially giving Mitsubishi a strategic interest in the company’s technology well beyond automotive.

That makes Mitsubishi an obvious candidate when considering who might have an interest in ensuring Seeing Machines remains properly funded.

But there is an important reason not to jump to the conclusion that Mitsubishi itself is providing the refinancing.

Seeing Machines said it had been talking to a number of potential lenders and had received multiple term sheets. That sounds more like a competitive financing process involving banks or specialist lenders than a straightforward shareholder loan.

There is, however, another intriguing possibility.

Mitsubishi Electric has established relationships with major Japanese banks. MUFG Bank is one of its principal lenders, with Mizuho Bank also among its significant banking relationships. If a Japanese bank were involved in the Seeing Machines refinancing, it would provide a possible link between Mitsubishi’s strategic interest and the financing.

MUFG is particularly interesting because it has a long-standing relationship with the wider Mitsubishi group. But there is currently no public evidence that MUFG, Mizuho or another Japanese bank is involved in Seeing Machines’ refinancing.

There is another reason Mitsubishi could be watching closely. Its proposed automotive alliance with Foxconn has highlighted the importance of electrification, autonomous driving and software-defined vehicles — areas in which Seeing Machines’ driver-monitoring, occupant-monitoring and emerging Physical AI technology could become increasingly relevant.

So there are three broad possibilities.

Mitsubishi could provide some or all of the refinancing itself. A Japanese bank with a relationship with Mitsubishi could be involved. Or the lender could simply be an entirely independent bank or private-credit investor attracted by Seeing Machines’ rapidly improving financial performance.

Most investors are probably betting on the third possibility.

But if the refinancing announcement does reveal a Mitsubishi connection — particularly through a Japanese financial institution — it could be considerably more significant than simply removing a financial overhang.

It could signal that Mitsubishi sees Seeing Machines as a strategic technology company with a future that extends well beyond the car industry.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.